Some excerpts of my comments from our site....
Interesting post but no reference was given as to where the info came from. If true, this could be the best well kept secret ( skeleton in closet) of this bull market..........
To: PaulM who wrote (59785)
From: PAUL ROBERTSON Saturday, Oct 14, 2000 2:35 PM ET
Reply # of 59830
i do not think that he has walked away Paul, just watching from a nervous comfortable distance. i would think that he is however, indirectly or maybe even directly, on the phone with Abby C. and Bill C. IMO the US is a cascading debt meltdown either way. It is so very interesting how AG stated no less than a few months ago how solid the US banking system was. Now with the figures for August bank defaults in at 5.8% or twice the fault rate of the early nineties and expected to climb to 8% by mid next year, we will see over time how stable the system is. Certainly if the indexes take out Thursday's lows AG will be watching even more closely. We are on the best roller coaster ride known to man kind as far as i am concerned.
Paul
Message 14581876
We have CPI on Tuesday and since PPI came in very hot Friday and we aren't as oversold, I would be cautious with Tuesday morning's action.
There are a HUGE number of earnings reports. Too many to list here but they are on the link to the left under Earnings calendar. Some of the more important ones IMO.
Tues - KO, JNJ ( both had pre run ups), PSFT, MO ( may give litigation guidance at CC Call), RFMD, ONE, WM (both in banking), LUV and DAL 9 Airlines), TER, TLAB, XLNX and SWC for the miners.
Wednesday is HUGE!!! - EMC, SUNW and MSFT along with many others. This should move tech hard one way or the other. MSFT has sold off prior to earnings and with differing stories on demand from INTC, DELL etc bearish and AMD, GTW bullish, MSFT will be the tie breaker. It could also rally after being so low and move the indexes up strongly due to it's weighting on all the indexes.
Thursday - A bunch but the only one I care about is EXDS to give clues to growth of internet server demand as it relates to SUNW and IBM. SFA only because I play it. .......
......Now knowing that the big 3 will be reporting Wednesday, I think that is the day that will determine our short term future. All three report great earnings and strong demand and we could rally until the next fed meeting gets closer and the pre-election pump is done. They all miss and the bull will be dead for years to come. Regardless, I still am looking for lower levels down the road. I am strongly leaning to a trading range for a couple weeks then a push down early November. Of course as I am trying to point out here, this week's news will steer the short term and bad news could accelerate the down move's time period.
Upcoming Conference Calls:
Ticker Company Name Date Time
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INTC Intel Corporation 10.17.2000 05:30 PM
Live: Q3 2000 Earnings
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INTC Intel Corporation 10.17.2000 07:30 PM
Replay: Q3 2000 Earnings
SUNW Sun Microsystems, Inc. 10.18.2000 04:30 PM
Live: Q1 2001 Earnings
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SUNW Sun Microsystems, Inc. 10.18.2000 06:30 PM
Replay: Q1 2001 Earnings
EMC EMC Corporation 10.18.2000 08:15 AM
Live: Q3 2000 Earnings
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EMC EMC Corporation 10.18.2000 10:15 AM
Replay: Q3 2000 Earnings
.......Looking at my more mid term cycles, I have the beginning of November time frame targeted for the larger drop with the next bottom around early December. Of course we could drop at any time since the news isn't exactly rosy right now but I won't be trying to front run the market too much until election time as far as playing thermo nuclear shorts.
Don't get me wrong, when Don's shorter term cycles say sell, I will dabble and if we are at one of my mid tines or I have corresponding over bought or hard sell signals, I will release the hounds but otherwise, I am saving most of them for later down the road.
We both see the strong possibility that this bounce is just that, a bounce to allow option expiration put covering etc and that we could top out Wednesday and head down again, I am just slightly more bullish short term due to my mid term cycle bottom last week and I feel we should try to rally a bit before we tank to the next lower low. I will be buying some puts this week just to cover my back side in case the ME talks break down or some other shock brings people to grips with reality sooner than expected. ........
....I never said I was 100% sure we were heading down. -ggg- Trade the swings and look for hints on the way up. Middle East parties have agreed to a peace summit Monday so that should help out a bit and I would imagine it will also help oil prices ease giving added strength to the OSX bearish chart pattern and XOM grave stone doji.
I ran the charts and I just don't understand where all the new lows came from. All I can figure is it was in the AM before the bounce took hold in earnest. The majority of my charts had at least a small bounce except for the pure trash stocks like BUYX, MUI, BAB etc. Many stocks did print new lows before bouncing like FDP, USFC, ATIS, CYMI, etc. ( Note these charts are just random samplings out of a trash folder I keep of loser stocks) In the broader market, they were all not bullish charts however with the mix about 65% bearish and 35% bullish IMO although making an assumption on one day is not a sure thing. SOme of the laggards could move next week since the leader issues tend to move first but the degree with which the leaders moved versus the smaller issues makes me think maybe it was all just index propping as shorts covered futures so only the heaviest weighted index stocks were bought to maintain parity enabling the lowest amount of cash to be burned and to keep them in the most fluid issues so they can make a quick exit should the need arise.
The market is very mixed here with contrasts even within the bigger issues. Stocks like DELL appeared to be just closing the gap it left on the way down. ORCL had a total lack of volume making me lean heavily bearish on that one. However JNPR, as much as I hate it for being over valued, has had fantastic volume on the last few day's climb making me believe anyone trying to short that one may as well stand in front of a train.
Basically what I am saying is for non-index players, the stock charts are on a one by one basis with some looking OK and others looking bad. I am also struggling with some of them since the bounce was not on any meaningful supports that I had drawn on some of them.
I do still think this was not the bottom but there are a few scenarios possible that would allow for lower prices but not right away. With the elections so close, we could go into a lower trading range for a while then drop; go lower trading range, pop then drop; or drop right out of the gate on a bad CPI. We could also stay either flat or bearish and then have a post election relief rally. Regardless of all these possibilities, I still am not bullish and won't be until the levels I spoke of before are breached. I will be playing some longs but I will be tightening stops as we go and I will also be either hedging with puts or opening short positions as the charts show good opportunities.
Basically, I am not 100% sure we will drop but I am pretty certain. The PPI Friday showed much more inflation than was expected, there is a slowdown in profits from many of the big players including tech, we have multiple currency crisis going on around the world and we have all kinds of middle east tensions going on with a change in our National CEO just around the corner. Speaking of which, don't forget that GE's Jack Welch will be retiring soon and they still haven't named a replacement. Uncertainty in that stock could weigh heavily on the DOW and SPX.
.......Some early observations.......
Futures sold off slightly after the close so we are biased down about 2 SPX points.
CSCO resistance around 53.5
OEX needs to get over 760 to get to bullish upper half of fork. Failure there is bearish.
NYSE needs to get back over 655 for me to get bullish longer term.
A failure of this rally will likely lead to lower levels of probably 1290 SPX and extreme values of around 1150 before next bounce.
in the bullish department, the OSX appears to be forming a bearish wedge on a weekly sell signal. Dropping oil would help the market. Adding to this observation, XOM formed a weekly gravestone Doji which is bearish for oil.
FLEX may have formed a weekly bullish hammer bottom off the bottom tine.
INTC retracement seems to be targeting 45.
If Paul is reading this thread, a failure of GM to hold 57 seems to point to a projected sharp drop to 47. As I said before, the weekly fork has held so far so it could bounce but if not, it could get ugly real fast.
Good Luck,
Lee |
