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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maverick who wrote (13870)	10/14/2000 7:28:45 PM
From: Rob S.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

That is obvious - "strong hands" always come in when a stock starts moving up because of institutional accumulation by definition. The threat to AMD's (and Intel's) long term prospects is based on whether they are able to grow business while the traditional uP/PC industry is losing prominence. Some forecasts have PC sales moving down as early in 2002 as portable devices and non-Windose internet devices take market share. I don't doubt that new devices and systems will increasingly be used to access the Internet, communicate, and do specific tasks now globed into the bafflingly complex and unmanageable PC architecture. But does this mean that PC sales will move down? Or does this mean that growth won't be able to be achieved in other areas to offset less robust growth in PCs? I don't know. We will see more clearly as we get closer. There is little question that the evolution of the PC is closer to an end. Current PCs are capable of doing what consumers want out of them. There is less reason to upgrade to new or faster systems and no new generation of software is expected that will force a new round of upgrades. For example, Windows 2000 doesn't require a hardware upgrade from NT4 capable systems. And. perhaps, pushing software out onto the Internet via ASPs, will reduce or maintain the requirements of the PC. Of course, the market for servers will continue to grow dramatically. AMD may face a shrinking market for PCs and a shift of the high end market to Intel's Itanium system. Or, AMD may be successful with it's own "value proposition" with the upcoming 64 bit system. We don't know how this shift will shape up. There are strong points on AMD's side; large new markets (for AMD) to continue to capture, a new 64 bit system that will take advantage of the huge existing software infrastructure and emerging Linux environment, and state-of-the-art production facilities. The reason AMD is not taking off is that there are legitimate concerns about how the future will shape up. The foundation of the PC/communications industry is shifting dramatically and there is no assurance which direction it will move. If Intel fails to execute well or AMD's value proposition wins out with a significant portion of the fast growth server and continued desktop markets, then AMD stock currently is a real value.