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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hmaly who wrote (126042)	10/14/2000 1:48:18 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583764

Harry, In addition, AMD has got to show 2001 EPS estimates higher than 2000's; investors want YOY growth in both EPS and revenues. I know that AMD will give analysts a guidance in November, but just to show how scared the analysts are to stick their neck out, just look at the report of one of the better ones, Dan Scovel of Needham & Co.: Message 14568764 We are maintaining our microprocessor unit shipment and ASP assumption for 2001 at 32.1 million and $100, respectively This is way too low. AMD will be at production rate of 10+ million in Q1 2001 and about 15 million in Q4 2001. That adds up to 50 million chips. So the difference between most likely outcome and ultra conservative analysis is 18 million chips, or $1.8 billion of revenue, of which at least $1 billion will likely be profit. I think this stock will be dead until there is some guidance for the analysts for 2001. Joe

To: hmaly who wrote (126042)	10/14/2000 1:58:10 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583764

Harry Ted, it was pointed out on the mod thread that AMD had most of their sales in Sept. and consequently, if you have a invoice with 30 days to pay, they would not be due yet. As far as receivables, I think only the Durons, because of infrastructure had high inventory levels. Nonetheless, you can understand how the growing inventory and receivables triggered fears that there is a problem. Hopefully, these concerns can be explained away in the November analysts' conference. In addition, AMD has got to show 2001 EPS estimates higher than 2000's; investors want YOY growth in both EPS and revenues. I think we will see AMD go up in the next few weeks but slowly until these issues get cleared up.<< Right now AMD shows better growth rates than Intel does for the last five yrs in almost every column.(SI financials) AMD right now is showing higher market shares in both flash and CPU's. A market share increase of 50% (8-12%) in Europe in 2 months during normal supply conditions is extraordinary. Several wks ago A*hole Kumar said that with Intels overhang in inventory, AMD would be roadkill, but what happened. Amd simply outhustled and outmanuvered Intel by dropping prices back in July already; picked up huge gains in market share in Europe and Asia, made their no.s in both rev. and units sold, but missed on EPS. No smart investor will buy a stock whose growth appears to be stagnant.....and that's what AMD looks like right now with an 2001 EPS that is less than 2000's. I have been saying this since last June when the problem first appeared, and its seems that everyone wants to ignore it. AMD's stock can not move up solidly until investors know that earnings will grow. What do you think this lastest tech correction is all about? The fear that the economy is slowing and tech revenues and profits will remain unchanged YOY in 2001. Its up to AMD to convince the analysts otherwise. How many Company's do you know which have posted losses for yrs on end, but as long as they were gaining market share and units sold, and WS kept on bidding the stock up. Does AMZN and most other Internet stocks ring a bell. The other night I said Niles was in a pissy mood when he asked his inane question, and his downgrade was the result. He knew before the CC that he would have questions about flash and pricing or whatever. Niles also was one of the few not to say "nice quarter". The internet bubble is over...it began when it was perceived that these stocks almost had no limits since it was a new industry. So, the speculators took over and ran the stocks up. However, when the limits were defined and the promise began to fail so did the stocks. Its the same for AMD; the stock started moving up strongly in March when it became clear that a turnaround had occurred and AMD was growing. The stock's movement though faltered when 2001 growth prospects became unclear. And unfortunately the analysts are interpreting Sanders recent positive comments as nothing more than bravado. BTW I don't think Niles made any positive comments; in fact, he sounded like he had just sucked on a lemon. KLAC one of my other investments only went up 1/4 after a good report yesterday. Some of these analysts have an ulterior motive.* Great report...but its a semi equipment maker...everyone thinks their participation in the semi cycle is over. It sucks but that's the way it works. These stocks have a meteoritic rise and then fall just as quickly. ted