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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (8017)	10/14/2000 9:04:35 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Gregster, realtor is from north shore of Boston Marblehead, Manchester-by-Sea, Ipswich, Beverly properties $500k and up are stalling, sitting on market now meanwhile, it couldnt be more brisk for properties like mine more middle class in the $200-275k range well, lower middle class or jackass middle class grovelers I am reminded of an excellent analytic article I read a few years ago... it pointed out that real estate market has these long large 15-18 year cycles... the early phase sees the money move into financial securities assets as recessions yield to renewed growth... initial phases of stock market bull sessions being rocky... this initial phase sees commercial RE benefitting quickly, and resort 2ndhome property not participating at all then as the economic expansion cycle matures, much of the stock market assets moves into real estate assets... the latter phase sees resort property benefitting enormously... author stated the last REcycle ended 1987-88... the current REcycle started in 1991-92 following the GulfWar... author concluded the current REcycle should extend toward year 2010... but it might extend further if the economic expansion extends further, and it certainly looks like it might... last comment was one regarding the technological revolution and its indelible effect on the economy, employment, productivity, wealth accumulation, and durability... author juxtaposed demographics of babyboomers and finally concluded the REcycle would likely extend to y2008-2015... this is when a large portion of boomers will have wrapped up their careers makes much sense to me / jim