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To: Puck who wrote (7564)	10/14/2000 11:32:48 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 34857

Tero's presented a bunch of subscriber statistics and attempted to draw meaning from them. There is no doubt that Tero's stats are correct...of course he drew from the period in which Korea (reperesenting 1/3 of CDMA's sub base) had just banned handset subsidies. Some might see this as slanting the statistics. This geographical dependence has been a weakness for CDMA (and Qualcomm) over the last couple of years but is coming to an end. The US/Canadian market should surpass Korea by the end of the year as the largest market. If MOT's demise is due to their focus on CDMA....how come Ericsson has suffered a similair fate? I dont think anyone can blame ERICY for putting too many resources into CDMA (they still havent released the CDMA phone that they promised was going to be out during the summer). It could be argued that the only thing saving MOT from the disgrace which Ericsson is facing (marketshare in the single digits combined with losses in the hundreds of millions) is the fact that they are competitive in CDMA. I think that MOT's and ERICY's problems are fairly easy to identify....terrible phone design combined with clueless management will kill you every time. One other thing....In his first article on MOT, Tero identified one of the reasons that people are worried about handset manufacturers is that PCS warned that they would only add 800,000 subs. He must know that the reason PCS missed their estimate by 100,000 subs was almost entirely attributed to a rise in churn. This has zero effect on handset sales.... Slacker