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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: justone who wrote (1024)	10/14/2000 1:41:06 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 46821

Hi justone, For the most part, I think you've got it about right. I especially enjoyed your analysis of the 8-4-2 timeframe on setting standards. And the view to how the auctions will allow a taxpayer-friendly upgrade to DoD gear was something that I'd vaguely considered and am glad you could articulate. We seem to have fallen slightly behind the Brits and the Germans in terms of filling the Treasury with telecom bond money. This directive should remedy that situation, eventually. <g> Re: Thus in any discussion of Europe's wireless success while worrying about America falling behind, it is important to note that this is not due to any other reason than the business case hasn't been made for the services in America. Absolutely correct, IMO. While Europe faced huge per minute land-line charges due to the coddling of the PTTs until very recently, we've been blessed with an extraordinary bargain in this country due to the rate structure for local phone service, almost unique in the world, in that it isn't metered by the minute. As regards your view that the diverse standards in use in the US has driven innovation, I'm not quite certain that I find this to be the sort of innovation that I care for. To me, it is more of a tower-of-babel solution than anything else. Plenty of work for engineers, no doubt, sorting out translations of content from one standard to another. I'm far more inclined to the sort of innovation in the development of content and consumer services that I see occuring in Finland with the SMS or in Japan with i-Mode. The multiple standards game as played in the US seems to be more of a navel-gazing exercise among engineers that doesn't adequetely address the ultimate goal of providing innovative and inexpensive services to the customer. Now, to shift gears to the current situation in Europe, I see the UMTS crowd in Europe taking a step back with the lastest round of auctions. What the vendors like Vodophone, DT, Orange, FT and others are going to be forced into is offering expensive premium services to an elite customer in order to justify the huge costs of licensing and infrastructure. I don't see the business case, at all. Currently, the WAP services that are on offer are cumbersome, slow and expensive. If this predicts what we can expect from 3G systems, we're in big trouble. A recent article in one trade publication brought out the "WAP is crap" argument convincingly. The writer, while experimenting with a WAP phone found that he was able to send an email and due to network sluggishness, was charged $4 for the effort. I'll guarantee you that there aren't enough customers on the face of the planet to sustain a service provider who is that far off the mark on efficiency and cost. I see a real Catch-22 coming for the 3G service providers, who need to cannibalize existing customers and get them to use a vastly more expensive service in order to pay for the service. Ain't gonna happen. We've all become far too spoiled by the Moore's Law model. Just another opinion. :) Best, Ray

To: justone who wrote (1024)	10/14/2000 10:06:33 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

"1.Government takes 8 years to make a change, and screws up 50% of the time." I suppose, then, that we all should be grateful that the government has not had optical, Ethernet, and other physical media constructs on its radar screens up until now.

To: justone who wrote (1024)	10/15/2000 9:54:40 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 46821

EETimes reports "President backs FCC on 3G spectrum study" Hi justone, Here's EETimes take on the 3G story: eetimes.com President backs FCC on 3G spectrum study By Craig Matsumoto EE Times (10/13/00, 5:34 p.m. EST) SAN JOSE, Calif. — President Bill Clinton stepped into the task of freeing up spectrum for third-generation wireless services on Friday (Oct. 13) when he issued a memorandum that instructs federal agencies to work with the Federal Communications Commission and the private sector to identify the radio spectrum needed for 3G wireless communications. In conjunction with that plan, the Federal Communications Commission is launching an aggressive program to have 3G spectrum bands defined by July 30, 2001, in order to meet the FCC's goal of holding spectrum auctions by Sept. 30, 2002. The push is driven by the fact that most of the spectrum in the United States is already in use, leaving no shoe-in bands readily available for 3G to occupy. "For most of this year, I have been warning about a spectrum drought in this country," FCC chairman William Kennard said. "Absence of spectrum is emerging as a gating factor for the new economy." Two bands for 3G were identified at the World Radio Conference in May: 1,755 to 1,850 MHz, and 2,500 to 2,690 MHz. In the United States, the former band is allocated primarily to the military, while the latter band is occupied by various commercial television services. In addition, it's widely assumed that more spectrum bands will need to be allocated as 3G services emerge. Overall, the World Radio Conference participants recommended that up to 160 MHz worth of spectrum be allocated to 3G wireless by 2010. But allocated spectrum can't be occupied and put to use outright; U.S. law requires that incumbent services be relocated. The President's plan, therefore, includes a study of who's using the proposed 3G bands and what it will take — in terms of time and money — to move those services, or to have them share the bands with 3G services. According to Clinton's memo, the Commerce Department must submit a "game plan" by Oct. 20 for selecting spectrum bands. An interim report about the services residing in those bands will be due by Nov. 15. Meanwhile, the National Telecommunications and Information Administration is studying the question of what to do with the military frequencies affected, while the FCC is studying the affected television bands. Other government agencies affected by the spectrum reallocation were instructed by the President to cooperate with the effort. In particular, Linton Wells, a deputy assistant secretary with the Department of Defense, said his department is assisting the NTIA in its study. In part, the government is worried that the U.S. industry's participation in 3G wireless may be at stake. The Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) issued a white paper on Friday praising the economic possibilities of 3G services. But CEA chairman Martin Baily noted that spectrum auctions are already occurring in Europe. Finland, in particular, is well ahead of the rest of the world. "They are already developing new companies, new lines of business around 3G," Baily said. "Our economy is very strongly positioned here, but we want to make sure we don't lose that." ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Hyperlinks in the article still provide no joy to the researcher trying to gain access to the supposed publication by the Council of Economic Advisors. Heck, maybe the damn thing is classified. <g> I like Kennard more and more as time passes. He seems to be one of the most enlightened bureaucrats I've witnessed in a long time. :) Ray