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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (60603)	10/14/2000 3:05:05 PM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Benkea, What is it that will ultimately cause the market to break support levels at this point given the following data points? AMD and GTW have created a dispute in regards to slower PC sales after INTC and DELL announce slight shortfalls. Competitive issues unjustly crushed GTW and AMD when in fact they are apparently stealing business. Chip companies across the board are disputing ANALyst lackluster projections. Recent book to bill data of the sector and especially the communications subsector back up the companies on this isse. Fiber and next generation networking equipment is selling at faster than expected levels. B2B and other enterprise software sales have increased at or above expectations. wireless handset sales are expected to increase 25% YoY next year to over ½ billion units worldwide dotcoms are failing left and right, creating a bit more liquidity in the employment market Wall street names are pumping again, indicating that they have taken their long positions. Thursday’s test of the may lows was fueled by the ME crisis that everyone was concerned about. Tensions are still high, but less so, however slightly. Oil prices gapped but have eased since supply concerns were alleviated. *Congress has postponed the proposed accounting changes for acquisitions. Any of the above issues could have raised the concern of reduced expectations, further fueling the decline. They did not. Concerns for the next few months… The PPI came in higher than expected reducing the likelihood of rate cuts, increasing the likelihood of inflation. This will have more of a water torture effect on the market rather than a precipitous drop imo. A cold winter could further strain oil pricing. War in the ME....hopefully on hold permanently. Currency weaknesses abroad. Gore could get elected. <g> (Not sure what effect that will have, I just dislike the man) In General… Valuations are still high. I am 50/50 on the absolute accuracy of TA. I believe that we need to see real issues drive the market below the 52 week lows on the nasdaq and am wondering what you and others believe that it will be. I believe that the DOW components are far less inflation proof than the techs and will be hurt far more. The DOW looks more exposed to me… The world is ramping in many areas in technological growth provided by members of the Nasdaq with visibility out at least 2 years. I am an absolute novice in market timing other than what I have been able to gleen from the valuable information on this thread. I sold everything late Friday (except for one new short position) and will revisit money allocation Monday morning. I appreciate any comments… tp