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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: T L Comiskey who wrote (8028)	10/14/2000 10:34:02 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

reality: Also, the lag of up to nine months between the time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and the impact on the economy, means that the bulk of the central bank's six credit tightenings, which first started in June 1999, have not fully filtered through the nation's economy. this is precisely why I believe this rally will NOT sustain itself we are nowhere finished with either of the two shockwaves: 1. lagged effect of May's 50 bpt and June's 25 bpt rate hikes (it takes 6-8 months for economy to feel it) 2. higher energy prices, with crude oil underlying (unless Europe tanks into recession, crude barrel could go to $40) I am beginning to conclude that Q4 will be very very interesting, with opposing camps getting stronger in contrast... the next stage of slowdown news is coming in several weeks... but more relaxed Fed bias is also coming in several weeks... the conflict will be HUGE the charts for NazComp and S&P reflect this... first Naz shows evidence of bottom behavior clearly, with double bottom support at 3100 from this week and last May... meanwhile, the S&P shows evidence of a ROUNDED TOP Oct/Nov prediction: more S&P and Dow trouble, while fitful starts on NazComp I dont doubt AbbyJo's 1575 S&P prognostication, but perhaps with a fall halfway down the basement steps beforehand / Jim