Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : ASK Vendit Off Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clappy who wrote (14711)	10/14/2000 12:48:31 PM
From: Vendit™	Respond to of 19374

I added a third chart to the web page where I post unlinkable Java charts which is of a 3 year time span of the NASDAQ and is showing very strong lower support at the 2870 level and I believe that a lower level than that is a very remote possibility. angelfire.com The next chart shows 3024 as a likely near term bottom if looking a week or so ahead. angelfire.com angelfire.com What do you know about Elliot Waves? Honestly not much. I believe that this type of TA is fine but does not allow you to see the fine detail that I look for in daily stock or index movement. Using an upward trending stock as an example you can see that there are many peaks and valleys (tops and bottoms) which occur every few weeks and I like to trade those. The set of indicators which I use are based on mathematic formulations which have over time proven to have a very high success rate in finding these tops and bottoms. The thing that I like most about them is that they work equally as well regardless of which frame in time that you choose to look at so you can be a successful position trader as well as a successful day trader using the same set of tools. AOL daily: (position trader) askresearch.com AOL 15 minute: (used to make a couple of daily trades) askresearch.com AOL 1 minute: (day trader mode) askresearch.com As you may have guessed Elliot Waves although good for some, would not fit into my trading style. I prefer to use trend lines as well as lines of support and resistance in predicting trend turning point targets. This post to be continued more on Elliot Waves ………………………………….

To: Clappy who wrote (14711)	10/14/2000 1:00:17 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19374

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY The Elliott Wave Theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott. Inspired by the Dow Theory and by observations found throughout nature, Elliott concluded that the movement of the stock market could be predicted by observing and identifying a repetitive pattern of waves. In fact, Elliott believed that all of man's activities, not just the stock market, were influenced by these identifiable series of waves. With the help of C. J. Collins, Elliott's ideas received the attention of Wall Street in a series of articles published in Financial World magazine in 1939. During the 1950s and 1960s (after Elliott's passing), his work was advanced by Hamilton Bolton. In 1960, Bolton wrote Elliott Wave Principle--A Critical Appraisal. This was the first significant work since Elliott's passing. In 1978, Robert Prechter and A. J. Frost collaborated to write the book Elliott Wave Principle. Interpretation The underlying forces behind the Elliott Wave Theory are of building up and tearing down. The basic concepts of the Elliott Wave Theory are listed below. Action is followed by reaction. There are five waves in the direction of the main trend followed by three corrective waves (a "5-3" move). A 5-3 move completes a cycle. This 5-3 move then becomes two subdivisions of the next higher 5-3 wave. The underlying 5-3 pattern remains constant, though the time span of each may vary. The basic pattern is made up of eight waves (five up and three down) which are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, and c on the following chart.>> equis.com Waves 1, 3, and 5 are called impulse waves. Waves 2 and 4 are called corrective waves. Waves a, b, and c correct the main trend made by waves 1 through 5. The main trend is established by waves 1 through 5 and can be either up or down. Waves a, b, and c always move in the opposite direction of waves 1 through 5. Elliott Wave Theory holds that each wave within a wave count contains a complete 5-3 wave count of a smaller cycle. The longest wave count is called the Grand Supercycle. Grand Supercycle waves are comprised of Supercycles, and Supercycles are comprised of Cycles. This process continues into Primary, Intermediate, Minute, Minuette, and Sub-minuette waves. The following chart shows how 5-3 waves are comprised of smaller cycles.>> equis.com This chart contains the identical pattern shown in the preceding chart (now displayed using dotted lines), but the smaller cycles are also displayed. For example, you can see that impulse wave labeled 1 in the preceding chart is comprised of five smaller waves. Fibonacci numbers provide the mathematical foundation for the Elliott Wave Theory. Briefly, the Fibonacci number sequence is made by simply starting at 1 and adding the previous number to arrive at the new number (i.e., 0+1=1, 1+1=2, 2+1=3, 3+2=5, 5+3=8, 8+5=13, etc). Each of the cycles that Elliott defined are comprised of a total wave count that falls within the Fibonacci number sequence. For example, the preceding chart shows two Primary waves (an impulse wave and a corrective wave), eight intermediate waves (the 5-3 sequence shown in the first chart), and 34 minute waves (as labeled). The numbers 2, 8, and 34 fall within the Fibonacci numbering sequence. Elliott Wave practitioners use their determination of the wave count in combination with the Fibonacci numbers to predict the time span and magnitude of future market moves ranging from minutes and hours to years and decades. There is general agreement among Elliott Wave practitioners that the most recent Grand Supercycle began in 1932 and that the final fifth wave of this cycle began at the market bottom in 1982. However, there has been much disparity since 1982. Many heralded the arrival of the October 1987 crash as the end of the cycle. The strong recovery that has since followed has caused them to reevaluate their wave counts. Herein, lies the weakness of the Elliott Wave Theory--its predictive value is dependent on an accurate wave count. Determining where one wave starts and another wave ends can be extremely subjective. I hope this helps. Reid