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Technology Stocks : PMC-Sierra (PMCS) - moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader Dave who wrote (54)	10/14/2000 1:31:13 PM
From: SJS	Respond to of 469

Dave, Thanks very much for that. I will endeavour to take a look at some of the numbers, and reverse them back to price. Is your 80% rate Y over Y revenue, earnings or something else? I guess my bet is that these guys CAN grow an AVERAGE of 50-80% over the next 4 years. If it revenue growth, they're doing pretty well, judging by the numbers I just saw. That means they take their revenue number, use the running start from this year (Net revenues for the first nine months of 2000 was $ 462.6 million, up 128%...) and could "settle" in to a pace of non-hyper growth (less than 100%) and still have a 50-80% average Y over Y revenue growth target, over the next 4 years. If stock performance is some factor of Y over Y average growth, then I'd accept a nice 33-50% return back to me in stock appreciation on 50-80 average revenue growth for the company. Does that seem like a reasonable expectation? What metrics are reasonable here? I mean, I watch EMC grow 30% and their stock appreciate 3x that/year. Steve

To: Trader Dave who wrote (54)	10/14/2000 4:10:08 PM
From: Catcher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

TD, i like the way you think. imho we will see a sliding scale as co's like pmcs, brcm, jnpr grow larger (and higher pe's will still be awarded with lower growth rates. right now co's like msft or intc aren't treated to this but once we have a hundred or more current high flyers reach their level it will start to sink in that a co can still dominate/hold promise without growing 100% a year. relative to the other smaller, less dominant companies with 100% growth rates (much easier for smaller co to accomplish), pmcs, jnpr & csco may continue to be afforded an outrageous pe--barring a revolutionary shift away from their technology. the same can't hold for dell (for example) with a now commodity-like technology