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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OX who wrote (60607)	10/14/2000 12:14:51 PM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Dear OX, You have generated some extremely useful information. Thanks so much for taking the time to do it. I have printed copies and will use them as important references for weeks to come. Glancing at the tables quickly - perhaps a bit wishful thinking on my part - I thought the closest resemblance exists between the current market downturn and the sell-off in mid-October of 1998, in terms of time-frame, severity, and mostly importantly, the fact that both declines were preceded by weeks of extreme weakness in September and first week(s) of October. Your thoughts? Thanks again, and I hope to read your posts more often. Ibexx PS: Are data on NDX comparable to those on COMPX?

To: OX who wrote (60607)	10/14/2000 12:26:24 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

OX---maybe separate out those rallies that also had a breadth/net upside volume thrust?--such thrusts signal the start of a more lasting move. Friday's didn't qualify.

To: OX who wrote (60607)	10/14/2000 2:17:03 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Interesting info. The data could be parsed using other information in addition to the breadth data that's been suggested as possibly helpful (e.g., relative volume, relative recency of new 10/50/200 day highs or lows, time of year, recency of previous comparable gains, and so on, and so on). I think the main problem, though, is that all of the data comes from the great '90s Bull Market: If you picked 20 days at random from around 1990 to the present, the market would tend to be higher at almost any particular later point. The longer the look-forward period, the more likely an increase, and the larger it would be. In a Bear Market, the opposite would tend to hold true. It's almost definitional. It's also not surprising that the worst outlier comes from April of this year.

To: OX who wrote (60607)	10/14/2000 3:14:19 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

nice! Not what I would have expected.

To: OX who wrote (60607)	10/18/2000 2:24:40 PM
From: OX	Respond to of 99985

Percentage gains and odds of subsequent positive closings for COMPX and SPX. --- COMPX data from Oct 1984. 56 total days of percentage gains of +3% on a closing basis. odds of a positive closing, X days forward +1 64.3% +5 62.5% +30 58.9% +60 76.8% --- SPX data from Jan 1950. 46 total days of percentage gains of +3% on a closing basis. odds of a positive closing, X days forward +1 60.9% +5 69.6% +30 65.2% +60 76.1% --- ** data to this past weekend, so there are a 3 instances for COMPX where +30 and +60 days closings are not available.