Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (7576)	10/14/2000 6:44:55 PM
From: Peter J Hudson	Respond to of 34857

Tero, Great to see you back! It seems you carefully selected statistics to support your anti-CDMA bias. Others have already pointed out that you cherry picked your numbers, so I won't pursue quarter to quarter growth rate anomalies. I have to point out that the total number of CDMA subs exceeding TDMA subs explains the growth story. I have some questions about some of your other statement. >> a number of CDMA operators have had very expensive promotional pushes.<< are you implying that these promotional pushes are unique to CDMA carriers? AT&T wireless has out spent all other wireless operators in the US to increase market share. >>As Sprint's big 1999 offensive has winded down, their subs addition growth has dropped below that of 4-6 major rivals during this year.<< Please name the 4-6 major rivals of Sprint PCS that had greater sub growth. >>The theory of GSM and TDMA subs "defecting" to CDMA operators is not panning out.<< Actually the defections to CDMA in the US have been significant, but the best is yet to come. The technical superiority of CDMA has not provided a great marketing advantage in 2G. The roll out of 2.5G and wide adoption of wireless data will provide a tremendous marketing advantage for the CDMA operators. The TDMA carriers have no way to respond. The GSM carriers will eventually have GPRS, but it won't compare favorably to 1X in price, performance or efficiency. I'm glad you agree that 3G will change everything. Do you think EDGE will be deployed? Are there any operators in Europe that plan to migrate to EDGE before or instead of WCDMA? Pete

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (7576)	10/15/2000 3:50:13 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 34857

Last winter's subscriber growth patterns were distorted by massive simultaneous booster campaigns taking place in USA, Japan and Latin America. Those campaigns are drawing to a close, because operators can't keep buying new subs as their base grows. Exactly....all of the data we get for CDMA/TDMA subs is distorted by regional factors. The sub bases arent widespread enough to make reasonable long-term predictions based on just one quarter. That was precisely the point of my original post. Look at TDMA....they have approximately 50m subs, with probably 40% counted by just TWO operators (AT&T, Cingular). A new phone or marketing plan can completely skew the numbers for a quarter....equally true is that a Korean government ban on handset subsidies will skew the data for CDMA. Anyway, we agree on one thing....it is hard to find evidence of a slowdown in GSM. Here is a compilation of numbers from the UK operators. Thanks to tomh009 on the Motley Fool thread. boards.fool.com Numbers look pretty good...they arent a blowout, but they should be enough to allow Nokia to show that Europe hasnt fallen apart (as the MOT report indicated). Slacker