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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (8056)	10/14/2000 3:13:54 PM
From: RR	Respond to of 65232

Why would you say the capitulation phase has yet to occur? RR <eom>

To: lurqer who wrote (8056)	10/14/2000 11:13:21 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

LurqMan, do you expect capitulation to coincide with 6-8 month lag from the "sour spot" of the rate hikes??? as in 6-8 months from March-May ??? that would be Oct-December ??? I do NOT believe we have climaxed from the full effects of the ill-advised Federal Reserve springtime interest rate hikes... but the market MIGHT be looking past it somewhat... I would NOT be surprised one bit to see the Dow retest the same 10,100 low, and the NazComp to retest a SIMILAR low in the 3100-3300 range... I would expect this when we see much slower economic data, like Q3 GDP I believe a strong and sustained rally will begin AS SOON AS the worst economic data is revealed... we have yet to see much of ANY slow econ data... we have yet to see any data that would lead the dominant (but inept) economists to pronounce a recession as imminent... THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED BUT IT WILL... the opposing camps have yet to climax in their opposition... the "recession" camp has yet to fully develop... they will soon receive some ammunition... when the opposition climax occurs, ONLY THEN will the Fed state an easing bias and prepare for a true interest rate easing until this slower economic data arrives, the Fed will remain stupidly seeing inflation under every rock, and will NOT back off their "inflation bias"... right now they are fixated on crude oil and higher energy costs... this acts as a tax on the whole system, compounding the effect of the rate hikes the Federal Reserve will NOT even consider easing until slower GDP data and slower spending data is seen... bear in mind that part of yesterday's rally was predicated upon healthy consumer spending... this does NOT encourage the Fed to ease good to see NazComp support as 3100 show itself though... next time down I expect the NazComp to turn up at a higher level... at that time the Fed will have changed their bias just my opinion, cold, considered, calculated 50 basis pt hike in May has NOT fully filtered down / Jim