Ron, it was clear that AS did not read the US House site regarding North Korea I mentioned. Only by the miracle of Internet are so many of us able to even know about this report....our press certainly hasn't mentioned it any too loudly! I have gone back to it and just taken out some of the Key Findings.....And if AS or anyone else really does read this, they will find there are 203 footnotes, many diagrams of the weapons and their capabilities. There are many disturbing findings in this report but one of the most disturbing is the following:
Unlike five years ago, North Korea can now strike the United States with a missile that could deliver high explosive, chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapons. The United States currently is unable to defend against this threat.
No American Spirit, I am not afraid of North Korea...I am afraid of American people who insist on wearing blinders , and refuse to read and absorb perhaps some very different conclusions than your preconceived ones.
KLP
house.gov
In August 1998, North Korea alarmed the world by successfully launching a multi-stage missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. Nearly a year later, reports from the Korean peninsula indicated that North Korea was ready to launch an improved version of the missile, one capable of striking the continental United States. It became clear for the first time that North Korea could deliver a weapon of mass destruction not just to Seoul, but also to Seattle.
KEY FINDINGS
North Korea has at least enough plutonium for one to two nuclear weapons. There is little reason to believe that North Korea has not or could not make a nuclear explosive device capable of producing a significant nuclear yield. North Korea's ongoing nuclear program activity raises the possibility that it could produce additional nuclear weapons.
Since 1994, North Korea has sought external assistance for its nuclear program. It has sold missiles and missile production equipment to Pakistan, as well as engaged in extensive contacts with Russia's nuclear establishment, and attempted to acquire nuclear and dual-use equipment from Europe and Japan.
It appears that the 1994 Agreed Framework has resulted in a freeze of Pyongyang's nuclear activities at Yongbyon and Taechon.
Although the 1994 Agreed Framework was essentially aimed at eliminating North Korea's ability to make nuclear weapons, there is significant evidence that nuclear weapons development is continuing, including its efforts to acquire uranium enrichment technologies and its nuclear-related high explosive tests.
North Korea is not meeting its obligations under the 1994 Agreed Framework to "consistently take steps to implement" the 1992 Joint Declaration on Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. There has been no progress in establishing the agreement's bilateral inspection regime to verify the denuclearization of the peninsula. In addition, evidence that North Korea is seeking to obtain uranium enrichment technologies suggests that, far from coming into compliance, North Korea is actually moving toward increased violation of the 1992 Joint Declaration. The FY98, FY99, and FY00 Foreign Operations Acts include conditions on the distribution of funds to the Korean Peninsula Economic Development Organization (KEDO) regarding the 1992 Joint Declaration. Under these conditions, the President must certify to Congress that the parties to the 1994 Agreed Framework have taken demonstrative steps to implement the 1992 Joint Declaration.
Through the provision of two light water reactors (LWRs) under the 1994 Agreed Framework, the United States, through KEDO, will provide North Korea with the capacity to produce annually enough fissile material for nearly 100 nuclear bombs, should the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) decide to violate the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
******
IV. Does U.S. assistance sustain the North Korean government?
The United States has replaced the Soviet Union as a primary benefactor of North Korea. The United States now feeds more than one-third of all North Koreans, and the U.S.-supported KEDO program supplies almost half of its HFO needs. This aid frees other resources for North Korea to divert to its WMD and conventional military programs.
U.S. aid to North Korea has grown from zero to more than $270 million annually, totaling $645 million over the last five years. Based on current trends, that total will likely exceed $1 billion next year. During that same time, North Korea developed missiles capable of striking the United States and became a major drug trafficking and currency counterfeiting nation.
***********
KEY FINDINGS
North Korea possesses biological weapons production and dispensing technology, including the capability to deploy chemical or biological weapons on missiles.
The DPRK is generally credited with possessing a full range of chemical warfare agents, including nerve, blister, choking and blood agents. The South Korean government believes that the DPRK followed the Russian pattern of developing chemical warfare (CW) weapons for a wide range of weapons systems, including artillery above 82 millimeter (mm), multiple rocket launchers, Soviet-derived FROGs (Free Rocket Over Ground), SCUD missiles, aerial bombs and spray tanks.
The DPRK biological weapons (BW) effort is believed to focus on traditional agents: plague, typhoid, cholera, anthrax, smallpox, yellow fever, botulinum toxin, and hemorrhagic fevers. It is generally assumed that, to the extent capable, the DPRK would seek to provide BW munitions for the same range of weapons as it does with chemical munitions.
***********************
KEY FINDINGS
Unlike five years ago, North Korea can now strike the United States with a missile that could deliver high explosive, chemical, biological, or possibly nuclear weapons. The United States currently is unable to defend against this threat.
According to the 1999 ballistic missile National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), "the proliferation of medium-range ballistic missiles - driven primarily by North Korean No Dong sales - has created an immediate, serious and growing threat to U.S. forces, interests, and allies, and has significantly altered the strategic balances in the Middle East and Africa."(38)North Korean No Dong transfers have all occurred within the last five years.
In the last five years, North Korea has made significant progress in improving its missile capabilities. It has produced, deployed and exported missiles to Iran and Pakistan, launched a three-stage missile (Taepo Dong 1), and continues to develop a larger and more powerful longer-range missile (Taepo Dong 2).
**************
KEY FINDINGS
North Korea has the fifth largest armed force in the world with nearly 1.1 million active-duty personnel and five million in reserve.
The DPRK has developed an advantage over U.S.-ROK forces in short-range ballistic missiles, artillery, and special operations forces.
The failing North Korean economy has undermined the readiness, modernization, and sustainability of DPRK conventional forces, thereby degrading Pyongyang's ability to successfully invade South Korea. However, the sheer size and firepower of North Korea's armed forces enables it to inflict great destruction and loss of life during hostilities.
U.S. aid to North Korea indirectly sustains the military capability of North Korean forces.
****************
KEY FINDINGS
North Korean No Dong sales are central to the Iranian and Pakistani missile programs. Sales to other nations, such as Syria or Libya, threaten to alter the balance of power against the United States in a number of regions.
If North Korea sells its longer-range Taepo Dong missiles to its current customers, it would bring U.S. forces and our allies within range of Iran and other rogue nations. This would be the first time that Iran or other nations would be capable of delivering a weapon of mass destruction against Israel or North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries.
If North Korea promises not to test missiles from its soil, it still remains capable of conducting its missile development programs from the territory of its primary customers, most likely Iran or Pakistan.
******************
KEY FINDINGS
North Korea regularly attempts to infiltrate agents into South Korea and Japan, triggering armed conflicts both at sea and on land.
North Korea also supports terrorist organizations, such as the Japanese Red Army, with diplomatic passports, counterfeit U.S. currency, and safe-haven in the DPRK.
****************
KEY FINDINGS
North Korea has become a major drug producing and trafficking nation, using diplomatic channels to market heroin, opium, and methamphetamine.
North Korea is also a counterfeiting nation, undermining confidence in U.S. currency abroad.
****************
KEY FINDINGS
North Korea is the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid in Northeast Asia. American assistance feeds one-third of all North Koreans and KEDO, largely funded by the United States, provides 45% of its heavy fuel oil needs.
Current food aid monitoring programs by the United Nations World Food Program (WFP) and the Private Voluntary Organization Consortium (PVOC) face a difficult environment and cannot ensure that U.S. assistance reaches those in need. There are continuing and credible reports of diversion of food aid to the military, closed regions, and unintended recipients. Food aid has been distributed in areas closed to international monitors in contravention of stated administration policy.
A number of other donors and international relief organizations, such as the European Union (EU) and Medicins Sans Frontiers (MSF) have cut back or ended their programs in North Korea due to diversions and the DPRK's refusal to permit them to monitor assistance programs.
The fuel monitoring system suffers from inherent limits, including dependence upon the North Korean electric power system. Flow meters and other monitoring equipment are routinely inoperable. Furthermore, KEDO has no arrangements with North Korea for monitoring the large quantities of heavy fuel oil in storage or in transit to the plants consuming the heavy fuel oil.
During a power outage which left the monitoring system inoperable from January- April 1999, the North Koreans consumed record amounts of unmonitored fuel. This case represents an example of diversion.
The State Department admitted to the General Accounting Office (GAO) that "insignificant" amounts of fuel have been diverted since this program started. When asked what would be a "significant" diversion, a State Department representative told GAO "you could drive a truck through our definition of a 'significant diversion.'" State Department representatives later admitted that North Korea has probably diverted at least $11 million worth of U.S. supplied fuel.
****************
KEY FINDINGS
U.S. assistance programs do not support or compel any major reform programs intended to help the North Korean people feed themselves or to restart economic growth.
North Korea is likely to remain a ward of the international community, bent on maintaining its policy of brinkmanship in order to exact assistance from the U.S. and other members of the international community.
*************
KEY FINDINGS
In 1994, North Korea triggered a nuclear crisis that it resolved only after it was promised two new nuclear reactors and annual shipments of 500,000 mt of fuel from the United States and its allies.
In 1998, North Korea leveraged international concern about its large underground facility at Kumchang-ni to gain an extra 200,000 mt of food from the United States.
In 1999, North Korea used its impending launch of a Taepo Dong 2 missile over Japan to win an end to the 49-year-old U.S. economic sanctions regime.
In the coming year, North Korea may leverage possible missile development and sales to win access to more aid and other credits from the United States, Japan and South Korea.
***********************
KEY FINDINGS
At least one million North Koreans have died of starvation in the last five years. While the government blames the food shortage on a variety of natural disasters, the reality is that the primary cause of the food shortage is the policies of the North Korean government. Without agricultural and economic reform, U.S. assistance will only be able to slow the loss of life.
North Korea has the worst human rights record of any government currently in power. The government has divided the general population into three classes and 51 subgroups. One third of the population, or at least seven million people, are classified as "hostile" by their own government. It is likely that international assistance intended for this group is diverted to more privileged classes.
North Korea is the only country that has attempted to withdraw from the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), or to imprison children for the crime of being hungry and away from home.
The survival of the regime is paramount. The North Korean government relies on the military for support and maintains high levels of international tension to ensure loyalty. The survival of the regime depends on keeping the Korean people isolated and ill-informed on developments in the outside world. The celebration of Kim Jong Il's 57th birthday alone cost $90 million, while many in the country starved.
North Korea has found that concessions from the United States are easier to win if the North Korean leadership presents a threatening, irrational, and unpredictable image to the outside world.
************
KEY FINDINGS
North Korea will not discuss political reform.
North Korea will only discuss cosmetic agricultural reforms if linked to significant donor payments from organizations such as IFAD or UNDP.
Due to its lack of political, economic or agricultural reform, North Korea will have to continue a policy of international extortion and crime to earn foreign currency.
***************** |
