byhiselo,
Good post. And I agree with your statement that:
>>"the market aberrations/mania of the last 2-3 years aside, to perform better than the majority takes much more work and effort than many realize."<<
The one thing I learned from my early years of losses is that the battle involved in trading is not "me against them" or "them against me"; but instead, me against myself.
As I've mentioned before, IMHO, Greed and Fear played the biggest role in how our decisions were made in relate to our trading methods. How well we put those Greed and Fear under control is depended on how well we exercise our discipline. Without discipline, we are really under the mercy of our emotions.
As to Rande Is thread (or any thread in that matter), IMHO, it should only be a place where you pick up idea on stocks to trade. If Rande Is or anyone posted that they're buying or looking into this or that stock, it would be foolish to just buy without doing any dd of your own.
So, what do you mean by doing your own "dd"?
Perhaps, this is the most misunderstood statement in the chatterlands across the cyberspace... Without any hard data to support my claim, I can only assume (yes, I'm making an "ass" out of "u" and "me") that the definition of "dd" range from:
"Hey, if X says he is buying, I'm buying! H*ll, since X already did the dd, why wasted my time!"
"Hey, X, Y, and Z all said the same thing about this stock, I'm buying!"
"Hmmm, the PR looks interesting, I'm buying!"
"Holy S***!, the price is moving up... must be something happening there, I'm buying!"
"The 10K looked horrible, I'm definitely NOT buying!"
"10K looked horrible, but the potential looks good, I'm buying!"
"My candlestick chart say it's a buy, I'm buying!"
"My dog wagged his tail when I mentioned the stock, must be a cosmic signal, I'm buying!"
"I combed thru all the 10Ks and read all the PRs and I felt sick to my stomach... but everybody in the thread say it was a great buy.... so I bought.... despite my own reluctance..."
"All my TAs confirmed each other, that was my signal to buy."
"I've been following this particular industry for many years, my fundamental analysis say this company will beat out all the others; therefore, I'm buying!"
"The Internet is the future! I've got to buy these beaten down net stocks!"
Need me to go on?
An interesting point about all the "dd" is that no matter how much "dd" you spend on any company, you still cannot predict the future price trend of the company 100%. No matter how many midnight hours you spend on your "dd", you still cannot eliminate the risk completely. There will always be risk.
And because of risk, one must be more concerned with how we deal with risk. Do you take risk for granted? Do you fear it so much you hesitate too much? Unfortunately, being human, our emotions volunteer itself to be our guiding light on risk. Good grief!
So, what is my point in all these rambling....!!?? My point is the same point that I've been trying to say all the times, we must spend more time in developing discipline to control our emotions- namely Greed and Fear. The battle of "me against myself" is the battle of discipline. That is my point.
We all have no one to blame but ourselves when we don't do well in our trading. The big players are not to be blamed. The so-called manipulation (real or not) is not to be blamed. Rande Is is not to be blamed. Lately, any one who read this thread trying to find out what Rande Is' position on the market is like trying to find out which way the wind is blowing on a stormy night where two storms meet each other. If you pay a little more attention, Rande Is seemed to always close his market prediction/comment with a disclaimer such as "[AGAIN it is important to note that I will turn on a dime, should ....]". What did that tell you? IMHO, that despite his "personal bias" toward the tech market, he is as confused as you and me. Can you blame him?
What is to blame is our lack of discipline in cutting our losses FAST. It is our own stubborness, righteousness, greed and fear that are to blame. By all mean, this inner battle is not an easy battle to win. Why do you think only a minority of the player win? The moment anyone decide to trade in the stock market, that is the day you must fight your inner battle in a more compressed time frame. Otherwise, we only need to face our inner battles in a more extended time frame outside the trading arena.
In conclusion, once you decide to look inside yourself instead of outside yourself regarding your current position, rather it be trading or any situation, only then will you begin the path to self-improvement.
If you're still reading here, I appreciate your time and attention. I apologize for such a long post.
All in my opinion only, of course.
BTW: in case some of you forget, below is a disclaimer from Rande Is's subjectmark that should have rendered all the "venting" unnecessary.
"I am a private investor/trader and not a financial advisor. Opinions expressed are my own. Do your own due diligence. Make your own trades. And remember to PROFITOFTEN!"
In other words, my interpretation of Rande's disclaimer is this: I trade the way I trade, it may or may not be the way you trade. So, do your own homework, trade the way you trade that is more comfortable to you. I'm my own man, so should you. Anyone has other interpretation of Rande's disclaimer? |
