Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Duke of URL© who wrote (51188)	10/14/2000 6:48:02 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 74651

The last I looked MSFT was about 28% owned by index type Funds, they re-adjust about once a quarter. Intc was 23% and CSCO was 21.5%. If those numbers are about the same MSFT will be impacted more when Index funds adjust. It's part of what drove her down as she lost weight in the index, IF she starts to gain weight due to others falling faster it could start her back UP. I'm not the expert on it but it gives you an idea of how and why a momentum is built into a stock via all the index funds. --------------- The data the public gets about fund trading is rather cold by the time it's available..still it's useful. The actual amounts may have changed considerable, however the relationship changes much slower. You may find this interesting 12.14.65.32 ------------ then type in JDSU You will notice of the outstanding shares JDSU has only 11.6% of hers owned by index type funds.. so she is only effected by changes in the index about 41% as much as MSFT.."However" she has 10% of her shares owned by Momentum Type funds "who turn over shares faster than index funds do" When you find stocks with Momentum type funds holding a large percentage of their shares you can count volatility. MSFT has only 1.3% held by Momentum type funds.. INTC 2.1% CSCO 2.2%. ------------- That data is from last June, We should be getting Sept Data soon. Jim PS YHOO 3.2% momentum, BUT 28% ! index type.. after her fall it's going to be hard to stop more downside. In short the more % of outstanding shares owned by index funds the more a trend will tend to stick, be it Up or Down. Even if a stock is headed down, when and if all the other stocks in the index collectivly drop at a faster rate it improves that stocks chances of turning back up The index effect of this last turn down will not likely come into play until Dec. But before the index funds adjust the good Mo Mo funds calulate the effect and get the jump on them. ---------- I hate trying to pick stocks it takes so much time and the data I get is cold. It's easier for me to just trade the qqq and pick a hot fund or two. Jim PS 2 Index type funds tend to trade alike and you can see how the collective effect is often more than than any of the biggest share holders.