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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: f.simons who wrote (13948)	10/14/2000 6:00:33 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 275872

Frank, <But that begs the question, doesn't it? What is a "fair evaluation" if the future is as I described?> Fair valuation for me is AMD at 15-20x next years earnings which I expect to be in the $3-$5 range. I consider Intel a fair value at 15-20x next years estimate of $1.25-$1.50 (this earnings estimate, I am sure, is much lower than street estimates and I expect the street estimates to start coming down in the next 90 days - Intel is going to have 3 or 4 ugly quarters on operational basis and I don't see anything that is likely to change that) You may wonder why I use the same multiple for Intel and AMD. And the reason is quite simple. Intel will be hard pressed to grow beyond the PC growth rate of about 15%. AMD on the otherhand will grow a little faster because it will be gaining market share. Chuck