Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (13957)	10/14/2000 7:17:53 PM
From: crazyoldman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Charles, Re: AMD is pushing Durons to 900MHz this Q and that theoritically leaves Intel without any high-end sales. There is a risk here that the market may have tough time absorbing that. How do OEMs deal with that? I've yet to meet a user (business or personal, sophisticated or novice) who doesn't want more power under the hood. Jerry is presenting compelling reasons to these users that they can have such power now and at a fair and attractive price. Jerry has launched AMD's course, now we wait to see if that course takes in the right direction. I wish we could all know those things Jerry knows, like how good/bad the arsenal looks, how the OEMs are talking, what the OEM really want, etc. Instead we shareholders must await in the dark as always. All I can say is Jerry and the fine people at AMD have delivered on their promises for the last year+. The job AMD has done has not been perfect, but pretty dammed good given the magnitude and variability of the task. Kindest regards, CrazyMan

To: Charles R who wrote (13957)	10/14/2000 8:06:11 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: AMD is pushing Durons to 900MHz this Q and that theoritically leaves Intel without any high-end sales. There is a risk here that the market may have tough time absorbing that <pure speculation> I think there were supposed to be at least two corporate PC deals, and that at the last minute they were cancelled. And it was due to Intel pressure on the OEMs. And I think Jerry is furious. There was a deal and there was going to be a gradual ramp up of high speed parts from AMD, with the top end continuing to be priced high enough so that it wouldn't upset the apple cart, and AMD continuing to downbin most of its CPUs, but AMD was going to get a handful of corporate SKUs. Then Intel's arm twisting pushed AMD out of the promised large business SKUs. So Jerry said "F**K This", mark 'em at the speeds they test at and price 'em to sell. The less confrontational Ruiz stepped aside so he'd be better able to mend fences later (if necessary) and wouldn't appear involved in the decision. Now Q4 is a big question mark for everybody, and AMD is being punished for making the mess. The third tier white box VARs (who market to the Fortune 500, just not as visibly as Compaq and Dell) will suddenly have price/performance that blows away anything from the tier ones (with the exception of Gateway's SB line). Now nobody knows what will happen in Q4 - will some corporate accounts switch from tier ones to VARs? Will they stick with Compaq, Dell? Will Gateway catapult to No. 1 in the enterprise market? Will everybody just keep on doing what they've been doing? What if Dell, HP, and Compaq sales in the $1,800 to $2,500 price range fall by 80%? Nobody likes uncertainty, especially in an already uncertain market - and AMD is seen as the culprit. And there is concern that Compaq and HP will shun AMD for forgetting its place in their plans for the quarter. Additionally, correctly or incorrectly, my guess is that Jerry thinks Intel had quite a bit to do with the VIA chipset delays. So if he can't make any money selling Durons, Intel isn't going to make any money selling celerons. With AMD matching Intel's fastest high volume 866 PIII at a price point of $150 on the street, and Duron 800s selling on the street for $100, Intel is going to be hard pressed to get more than $50 for a celeron. Kind of the microprocessor business equivalent of nuclear war. Unfortunately for Intel, all it has are conventional weapons right now. If Intel can come up a couple million P4's, P4 motherboards, and a couple million pairs of RIMMs between now and the end of November, and price the package (CPU, Mobo, and RAM) at less than $750, then Intel can negate what Jerry has launched. <end pure speculation> I really don't think Intel can ship more than a few hundred thousand in that time frame, and the cost will be much too high, so Q4 is really up for grabs. We're all in for a wild ride. Dan

To: Charles R who wrote (13957)	10/14/2000 11:20:02 PM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Chuck, Can the market absorb a move to 700-900MHz for low-end and 1-1.5G for high-end in the next 90 days? A very tough question to answer. It has a destibilizing effect, and the retail vendors (HP, Compaq) are at a disadvantage, but this is more of a problem for the incumbent. Joe

To: Charles R who wrote (13957)	10/15/2000 11:52:39 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<< AMD is pushing Durons to 900MHz this Q and that theoritically leaves Intel without any high-end sales. There is a risk here that the market may have tough time absorbing that. How do OEMs deal with that? It is hard to tell. It would have been much safer ramp if AMD got some penetration on the corporate side. >> If AMD pushes the low end that high up they might be able to make up some for the platform differential, however, I wonder how much that would hurt the Athlon sales. Especially if the fastest Athlon is a 1.2 and not a 1.3 at the time.