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To: X Y Zebra who wrote (36546)10/15/2000 6:47:14 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 64865
 
>>More than being "wrong" in his/her stance (i.e. bull or bear), this example tells me that the person you are talking about has no "structured system" (even if it is voodoo).<<

tazio, why have a structured risk reduction system when it cut into your returns for 2-3 years running? heck some clown that dumped their entire retirement and that mortgage refi money into amzn's ipo didn't diversify! of course, you are right. risk aversion is key. however, greed is VERY deceiving and VERY powerful. would my friend say he was greedy? absolutely not. heck, for 2 years + i told him once a month to be careful or disaster would strike. it was comical for 2+ years. until it wasn't funny anymore.

i know another guy who mortgaged his house to buy qcom at $100 on the way up to $200. i hope he isn't still holding b/c that increased mortgage payment is a b* after losing the borrowed money.

neither friend is poor nor would i say either is rich. both have to work (and at least one is a very hard worker!). i just hope he didn't dump too much in intel at $48.

wrt your system, you are wise to take some off the table (and hopefully leaving it there!). i have done well the past several years b/c my system tells me to buy companies below fair market value and sell when they are above fair market value. man, i've still left a lot on the table! ;-)

funny, though, that changes very quickly. i sold one company at $27 after seeing it languish at $3 not 12 months earlier. two weeks later it hit $50. what?!?!? not long after, it was $13. now it is about $30. next month? who knows, i don't.

good luck.



To: X Y Zebra who wrote (36546)10/16/2000 3:10:23 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 64865
 
tazio, here is an excellent link to 6 general bubble myths still, in large part, in effect...

interactive.wsj.com

btw, i was wrong on rca falling 90% from 1929 highs. it fell 98%.

was radio an amazing technology? i'd argue more amazing in 1929 than the net was in 1996. did it go away? nope. was the rca the lead sled dog for this amazing new technology? yes.

did these facts stop it from losing 98% of its value? NOPE!

good luck.

caveat emptor.



To: X Y Zebra who wrote (36546)10/16/2000 3:34:02 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 64865
 
tazio, another good link expounding the causes of rapidly expanding pe multipes in the midst or rapidly decreasing corporate growth rates...

dailyreckoning.com