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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary105 who wrote (48867)	10/15/2000 7:43:01 PM
From: Sergio H	Respond to of 94695

Hi Gary. Here's an interesting opposing point of view: Message 14273558 Sergio

To: Gary105 who wrote (48867)	10/15/2000 7:47:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

Hi Gary, Well I see 2 viable scenarios: My preferred is tech leads us higher with the institutions getting impatient.Monday will be key - especially if it rallies and it must be on volume.High Volume must occur, not on all days however, In fact all tech stocks should have by now had the weak hands shook out.Many techs must begin to build cup and handle formations.The right side of the cup is usually built very fast and on light volume because the strong holders already have their positions and they won't sell till higher prices occur. Any good reversal rally has to occur on increasing volume.Then 4-7 days later we need a confirmation rally - upagain and on above average volume.This confirms the institutions are buying the value. I was really troubled by Bobby Beara excellent chart that shows a lack of divergence among several indicators as the price of the markets melted on thursday.A double bottom low with indicators going as the price goes down is a slamdunk tipoff that the bottom is going in.His chart on the market didn't have a divergence. I then went to my semi equip stocks and they all have great divergences - leads me to a hold and buy laggards if the volume developes on monday. Scenario # 2 would require a good ole downright ugly test and break of support with a violent 1-2 days of trade. This is my second wave vix spike(into the 50-60).This may still occur but I think our semi equip stocks will hold well and their RSI will look good.This could still happen! One strong argument against this happening is the double bottom we,ve already had in september.That is another way of accomplishing the final shakeout of the weak holders.After all the threat of war and the terrorist actions are powerfull fear creators in an unstable market.The Worden Brothers don't think all bottoms need to go out with a bang - many in the past have wimpered and rallied.It just so happens the last one was with a violent bottom. The violent bottom scenarion will be a grandiose time to buy your favorite blue chip at a bargain that won't be seen again.Nvls below 30? Ter in the low 20's Amat in the 30's. All good possibilities all wouldn't stay there more than an hour.It would be like shooting fish in a bowl to pick a 25 % winner in 5 days.HEHEHEHE SCARY BUT GREAT I just don't think itwill be.We've had a double bottom and we are too far into earnings and good earnings are moving the stocks - unlike the last 2 Qtrs that had much higher valuations. Bottomline we're in the bottom - it's more a question of how soon we run up.Looking at my small selection of stocks it's sooner than later.But the world's made up of many other stocks. Just my Humble Opinion. Bob

To: Gary105 who wrote (48867)	10/15/2000 8:00:27 PM
From: blitzfund	Respond to of 94695

Gary, I listened to Doug Jimerson. What I don't understand is he thinks (as I am sure others do) that the market is going to collapse after expiration. Why would anyone in their right mind wait to sell after expiration? I really think that large holders of equities (pension funds, mutual funds)could care less about a few million option holders. Wouldn't they be more interested is self preservation, like keeping their jobs and liquidating while there is a little pop in the market as they have been doing for months? I am not so sure they can liquidate during a market meltdown. So I still think next week will be a down period and 1325 will not serve as bottom but a ceiling for future rallies and that 1250 on the S&P seems more possible. As far as 1600 on the S&P, I think a lot of fund managers would like the public to buy into that scenario so they can hand each and every one of them their heads. Blitz