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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (60687)	10/15/2000 8:01:51 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I don't believe that the major indices "need" to fall much further than their lows of last week, but sometimes there just isn't a responsible call to be made, and I don't pretend to know the future. Rather than try to scare the kids or attact attention with downside "measuring"'s to the 7000s based on faulty or incomplete analysis, however, I prefer to await definitive evidence. If you've read my previous posts on the subject, I've conceded more than once that the Dow is vulnerable. On Friday I suggested (at the time using candlestick interpretation) that the Dow's rally on Friday was, in comparison to the rallies on the Nas, S&P500, and SOX, the least convincing ("thrusting without piercing") even for hope of a solid bounce. I wouldn't START feeling safe about the Dow until it's back above 10,750. The volume figures you reference do not, however, make the case for the Dow being in a diamond pattern or head-and-shoulders--just the opposite. Also, contrary to popular belief, heavy volume on downside breakouts from some formations can indicate higher likelihood of reversal. I also agree with bearshark that ARBA, having failed to make a new high on its recent breakout attempt, is in a questionable position. I'd even agree with you that, as a negative earnings high-flyer (though the numbers I get don't agree with yours), ARBA could turn into a very fat target if and when the market rolls over definitively to the downside. On the other hand, as a company whose total revenues continue to grow at phenomenal rates quarter over quarter, ARBA will continue to be able to make major moves up under other conditions. Call it one that's worth watching. I'm sorry if I offended you by suggesting that Hahn was "full of it." I stand by point, but there's no need to get personal. Anyway, I'm through for a while today, as my dogs need to go to the park.