Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (60713)	10/16/2000 12:41:36 AM
From: Gary Burton	Respond to of 99985

da chief--my 2c on the Naz Comp is as follows----long term view is that we are in Wave IV in a 5 wave move from the 87 Low. Wave III ended in March/00 at 5100ish. A standard 38% retrace of III would target 3300 and 50% would target 2700, so 3000ish is certainly reasonable on that score....but...I assume that the summer rally on the Comp peaked on Sept 1 since the Naz100 peak on Sept 1 exceeded the August peak and---The rally from the 3043 print low on the Comp looks very much like a 3 wave move(just like the Naz100) so for that reason the overall Wave IV likely extended from the May 24 low of 3043 for the A, the Sept 1 peak of 4260 for the B and now we are in the C----if the rally off the May low had been 5 waves up, I would have been inclined to think that the 3043 low was it, but it likely wasn't a 5---implying that we are now in the C part of Wave IV here in October-----I am anticipating the structure from the Mar peak to 'now' to end as a 3-3-3 double zigzag (with the last 3 not yet complete) and not a 3-3-5 flat back down to 3000ish, largely because the B Wave up to the sept 1 peak only retraced 62ish % of A and that's not high enough to imply a Flat in progress......Bottom line--I think Friday's surge is a bear mky rally and we will break slightly under 3043 very soon to complete the (a) leg of the C down--from there a more vigorous but short (b) rally towards the higher 3's and finally a last hard shot down towards 2500 to complete the C----best guess for end of C is very late Oct or by mid Nov latest.