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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GUSTAVE JAEGER who wrote (9870)	10/16/2000 11:09:06 PM
From: CIMA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Impeachment May Spark U.S.-Philippine Alliance Summary Philippine President Joseph Estrada was accused last week of receiving payments from a gambling syndicate. The Philippine opposition has taken steps to impeach Estrada, and Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo is set to move into the top job. If so, Arroyo may increase military ties with the United States in order to confront a greater threat - China. Analysis Philippine President Joseph Estrada is fighting for his political life as opposition members of the Philippine Congress move to impeach him for his alleged role in receiving gambling kickbacks. There is a very real chance Estrada may be removed from office and that Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo will take the top job. If so, the United States may be on the cusp of a new strategic relationship with the Philippines. Luis Singson, governor of the Philippine province of Ilocos Sur and a former Estrada ally, dropped a bombshell Oct. 9 when he claimed, for more than two years, he personally gave Estrada 10 million pesos a month (about $200,000 at current rates) from gambling syndicates running an illegal numbers game called jueteng. Estrada has circled the wagons, denying the charges and hiring a legal team. The Philippine Inquirer reported rumors Oct. 12 that the Estrada camp offered a $20 million bribe to drop the allegations. The Philippine Congress is now preparing for an impeachment. According to the Philippine constitution, one-third of the House of Representatives must vote to impeach the president before he is put on trial in the Senate, where a two-thirds vote will convict him. __________________________________________________________________ For more on the Philippines, see: stratfor.com __________________________________________________________________ An impeachment is likely - Estrada's party only controls half of the House. Conviction is less likely, but definitely possible. Ten of the 24 members of the Senate belong to Estrada's party, enough to block a conviction. But if two Estrada allies defect, and the rest of the Senate votes with the opposition, then Estrada is gone. This scenario is not at all far-fetched - two legislators and a governor have already left the ruling party. If Estrada leaves office, Vice President Arroyo will become president for the remainder of Estrada's term, and security relations could become stronger between the Philippines and the United States. The U.S. military withdrew from Philippine bases in 1991, and subsequent presidents have fostered a nationalist spirit within the populace. Estrada focused the military's attention on the Muslim rebellion in the southern Philippines rather than potential foreign threats. Meanwhile, the United States regained a foothold in the Philippines - partly because Manila needed military aid. The two signed the Visiting Forces Agreement in 1999 and ran joint war games last February for the first time in five years. But the aid was small - mainly trucks and helicopters - and the military relationship remained a shadow of its formerself. _____________________________________________________________ The Georgetown-educated Arroyo - daughter of former President Diosdado Macapagal - has spent the last decade in politics. She was elected as a senator in 1992 and vice president in 1998. Arroyo keeps a tight lid on her opinions and has been a model vice president, supporting and parroting the president's decisions. But a few hints have emerged about her views on security issues, which focus more upon external threats than internal ones. Fully aware of her country's colonial hangover, Arroyo voices the primacy of Philippine national interests and shies away from a resumption of the patron-client relationship that existed with the United States for most of the 20th century. That said, last August Arroyo said she "cautiously welcomed" the possibility of U.S. intervention in the long-running hostage crisis, according to Mindanao News Digest. She also noted at the time the United States' role as a traditional ally of the Philippines. Arroyo views China as a greater threat than the United States. Arroyo was one of two Philippine senators to visit Taiwan on its National Day in 1994, a symbolic move that provoked protest from Beijing. And she has gone on record over her concern about Chinese designs on the disputed Spratley Islands, which lie in the South China Sea west of the Philippines. Beijing has set up an outpost on reefs claimed by Manila. Arroyo has maintained national interest, rather than history, must determine political priorities. China has a history of proprietary behavior in the region and is a much greater long-term threat to the Philippines than is the United States. With Arroyo in office, the military relationship between Manila and Washington may intensify. _____________________________________________________________ For more on Asia, see: stratfor.com _____________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on stratfor.com _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com