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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (28523)	10/16/2000 9:59:55 AM
From: Efthymios H. Zacharias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Yep, saw that. Also like the response. Nothing we haven't discussed but nicely summarized. csf.colorado.edu

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (28523)	10/16/2000 10:16:06 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

This guy shouldn't be so bearish... contradicting Poly: Fed Official: Oil Prices a Serious Matter Caren Bohan Sat Oct 14 21:38:00 2000 EDT PROVIDENCE, R.I. (Reuters) - A Federal Reserve official on Saturday said the run-up in energy costs had to be taken seriously for the U.S. inflation outlook, but he noted that many private-sector observers think oil prices may already be hitting their peaks. "We have to take the overall inflation rate seriously," William Poole, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said after a lecture at Brown University. It is not enough to just look at non-oil inflation, he added. "It's clear that oil matters to people," Poole said, noting that many people in New England are worried about the rise in heating oil costs. He said the practice many economists have of emphasizing the so-called core rate of inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stems from a need to strip out sectors that are highly volatile for short periods of time. But over the long term, oil prices can play a role in overall inflation. Asked by reporters if he was seeing much spillover of oil prices to other parts of the economy, Poole responded that there was some evidence of that in shipping costs and air fares. However, he added that it didn't seem very widespread. A jump of 3.7 percent in energy costs fueled the 0.9 percent rise in U.S. producer prices in September. Excluding food and energy, wholesale prices rose 0.3 percent. Both gains beat average forecasts of economists surveyed by Reuters, but Poole said the results appeared to have been anticipated by financial markets. "Most of it was predicted," he said. "I think that's the way the market took it." Poole was also questioned about his forecasts for U.S. economic growth in the near term. He said that he agreed with private-sector economists who pegged it at around 3 to 4 percent. Turning to the subject of recent declines in U.S. stock prices and their potential to crimp growth, Poole said that would affect the economy if it were sustained. However he added: "what we know about the wealth effect is that it is spread out over time." In other words, the impact on the economy of consumer wealth being hurt by stock downturns would not happen all at once. "If the situation continues, then you would expect to see demand growing a little less robustly," Poole said. But he noted that there were other reasons demand might slow anyway, such as the fact that the personal savings rate is standing at the lowest level on record. During his lecture at Brown, where Poole taught before joining the St. Louis Fed, he discussed research he had done showing that financial markets had become remarkably adept at predicting Federal Reserve policy. That was particularly true in the period after 1994, when the Fed became more open about its changes in the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge each other for overnight money. The funds rate influences short-term interest rates throughout the economy and is the Fed's main lever for influencing the economy. "Most of the changes in the fed funds futures rates are driven by economic news, such as the monthly employment report and the inflation data. A relatively small part of the changes in futures rates comes on days Fed officials give speeches or testimony," Poole said. As an example of the accuracy of the predictions, Poole pointed out that interest-rates reflected in federal funds futures contracts had fully priced in the Fed's last interest rate rise, a half percentage-point increase taken in May. DAK

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (28523)	10/16/2000 10:23:33 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

The clowns that bought Naz trash in the green this morning will be destroyed. Buying after vigorous short-covering in a bear market is a textbook prescription for disaster. This time, Friday's support line dies. <eg> [EDIT: Oh well, so much for that attempt. Yep, we'll be at 3550 by the close. <s>] BC