Oct. 16, 2000, 12:52AM
Abortion issue may sway undecided voters
By JULIE MASON
Copyright 2000 Houston Chronicle Political Writer
In the final weeks of the presidential campaign, with the two major candidates seeming deadlocked in the polls, abortion is emerging as a potentially galvanizing force among undecided voters.
Although it is one of the most emotional issues in modern politics, abortion has been at most a secondary topic on the presidential campaign trail this year.
More recently, however, abortion questions have come up in the nationally televised debates of both presidential and vice-presidential candidates.
In toss-up states where electoral vote stakes are high, abortion is the centerpiece issue for millions of dollars in advertising aimed at moderate and independent female voters.
The strategy is being fueled largely by abortion rights interests, and it benefits Democrat Al Gore.
For anti-abortion Republican George W. Bush, drawing sharp contrasts on abortion at this stage could hurt his campaign by alienating moderate voters whose support he needs to win, political observers say.
"It's a losing issue for Bush because he's already so far behind on the gender gap," said Randall Lake, associate professor of communications at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication.
One poll last week gave Gore a lead among women of 12 percentage points, while Bush drew a 15-point lead among men.
It's a gender disparity political observers attribute in part to the candidates' positions on abortion. Nevertheless, the race is virtually tied, with both sides looking toward moderate and independent voters in toss-up states.
"There is one demographic we are targeting, the one our consultants call the `compassionate conservative woman,' " said Rebecca White, senior vice president for community services at Planned Parenthood of Houston and Southeast Texas Action Fund.
"She traditionally votes Republican, but when she hears the candidates' positions side-by-side (on abortion), she changes," White said.
"Compassionate conservative" is a label Bush has given his own campaign. Planned Parenthood's national advertising campaign, budgeted at $7 million, is targeting women who might otherwise be Bush voters in six states, including Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Bolstering their efforts are millions of dollars being spent by other groups such as the National Abortion Rights Action League, in identical strategies targeting the same voters.
Colleen Parro, executive director of the Republican National Coalition for Life, said anti-abortion forces are being outspent and out-maneuvered by abortion rights advocates this election year.
Activists on both sides said abortion could edge into more prominence as Election Day approaches because of the federal approval of the abortion drug RU-486, two Supreme Court rulings favorable to abortion rights, and concern over future Supreme Court reviews of abortion.
Although abortion has been legal since 1973, both sides are pushing the notion that this year's campaign is critical because the next president probably will nominate two or three justices.
Bush opposes abortion except in cases of rape, incest or when the woman's life is endangered. At the same time, Bush said he would not support a constitutional amendment outlawing abortion, as some in his party have sought.
Gore, meanwhile, supports abortion rights, including federal funding for abortions. Gore also has opposed requiring parental consent for minors seeking family planning services.
According to a recent Gallup Poll on abortion, as few as 15 percent of U.S. voters make their decision based solely on a candidate's abortion beliefs.
In a phone poll of 998 adults, 48 percent said they consider themselves "pro-choice," while 43 percent call themselves "pro-life."
According to the pollsters, most of those surveyed tend to fall somewhere in the middle, favoring legal abortion under limited conditions. The center falls out of the equation, however, when voters are asked for their views on the issue of late-term abortion, often called "partial-birth" abortion by opponents.
A new poll by Zogby International found 53 percent of Americans agree with Bush's support for a congressional ban on the procedure, compared with 37 percent who support Gore's promise to veto such legislation.
In June, the Supreme Court voted 5-4 to strike down a Nebraska law that banned "partial-birth" abortions and imposed penalties, including prison time and license revocation, for doctors who perform them.
The same day, in a separate case, the justices upheld 6-3 a Colorado law that restricts protests near abortion clinics.
With regard to future vacancies on the court, Bush recently said he would impose no anti-abortion litmus test on nominees. But he said he would select prospective justices with views similar to those of Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas. They consistently have sided with the court minority that wishes to revisit Roe v. Wade, the landmark 1973 case that legalized abortion.
Gore, meanwhile, warned that one more vote on the court against abortion rights would plunge the country backward, allowing states to decide on their own to outlaw abortion.
With so much at stake this year, Susan Cullman, co-chair of the national Republicans for Choice, said the presidential election is proving a difficult one for many moderate Republican women.
"For moderates, moderate Republicans and even moderate independents, this is an issue that I know is on their minds," Cullman said. "What is attracting women to Gore so much and so much away from Bush? I know Bush has used as one of his hallmarks the desire to do better with public education, and that's an issue women care about. But what is making women turn away from him? Abortion has got to be one of those issues." |
