To: John Koligman who wrote (162167 ) 10/16/2000 1:10:58 PM From: D.J.Smyth Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387 talk about slant: multiplied 93-fold between the same starting point and its peak this March, on the view that it could generate astonishing personal-computer sales growth no matter how big it became....Then, in 1999, sales growth slowed to 38% -- still enormous, the bulls enthused. But earnings growth also slowed, and in the fall of 1999, Dell warned investors that its earnings would fall short of estimates. The stock bounced around as bulls and bears fought it out over the company's growth prospects. But in the end, the skeptics were proved right. Dell warned repeatedly that its performance would disappoint. On Oct. 4, it said that this year's third-quarter revenue and fourth-quarter earnings would miss targets. Dell warned twice. How does "repeatedly" and twice become the same? As for Dell's stock moving 93 fold...Dell's revenue grew from $600 million to an expected $38 billion over this same time frame. Dell's original pe was around 12 before the run. Several analysts were calling Dell nothing more than a "PC commodity vestibule" in 94. At what point were these analysts proven wrong? Never? Since Dell has only now warned? And what were the skeptics right about? The fall in the Euro? I didn't hear one skeptic claim that this would be the extending factor in Dell's slowing growth until it was already underway mid-summer 2000. There was lots of talk of Asia...Asia bounced back. Asia's growth has again exceeded 30%. Dell's "miss" on target was blamed on Europe...$200 million in revenue. Thus far for the year, $450 million behind analysts' estimates. The skeptics, no less than the bulls were on hit and miss. The market has decided to believe the skeptics regarding Dell's "slowing growth"? What happens if Europe bounces back with a passion? What happens if the Euro comes back? What happens if Dell's highend server designs are successful? What happens if Dell is successful in the storage end? EMC's CEO called the potential of storage solutions "unlimited". The market has decided to believe EMC's CEO regarding umlimited storage opportunity. They've decided not to believe that Dell has a viable solution for the category...or its entries are too late. EMC states they've tapped but 5% of their potential market. Does Dell stand a chance of competing with EMC for the other 95%? In the meantime the article says nothing regarding SUNW's or EMC's continued bullish evaluations. It claims the tech world fell apart. The stock prices of the tech world were pushed apart. The tech world's growth rate has remained strong. Myth #7: Don't read expository myths about myths.