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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandeep who wrote (51273)	10/16/2000 3:15:02 PM
From: Bill Fischofer	Respond to of 74651

Thanks for the advice. I'm not an options player but it seems to me that MSFT is extremely oversold here. With everyone so focused on what's wrong with MSFT it's interesting to note what's right: 1. Expectations have been set very low. This means that the risk of disappointment is already in the stock. By contrast, the possibility of any upside surprises are not. 2. Rumors of the PC's death are greatly exaggerated. The "PC is dead" mantra is even sillier than the "mainframe is dead" mantra of a few years ago. Of course the PC is transforming (as it has throughout its history), but those who think the PC's best days are behind it are very mistaken. 130 million units per year growing at 15% still provides an excellent baseline business--not to mention a highly desirable target audience for future .NET services. 3. Wintel will make major inroads in the enterprise space over the next year, and this trend will only accelerate. FUD about unreliability will be replaced by actual field data (which is excellent) and the lure of dramatically improved price/performance will do the rest. 4. New initiatives (Automotive, X-Box, etc.) are being given no weight or visibility in the current price. 5. The DoJ case has seen its high point in terms of stock damage. Even if Bush/Gore do not drop it early next year (something I do expect) it will continue to fade into irrelevancy as it winds its way through the appeals process over the next 2+ years. Does anyone believe the Appeals Court will be rubber stamping Jackson's verdicts? 6. MSFT's cash hoard continues to compound at an amazing rate. Even if it costs them a few billion to deal with puts or other one-off items the pothole will hardly be noticed and will be largely offset by things like the interest it earns on its cash (which is not counted as part of operating income either).