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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8748)	10/16/2000 4:03:58 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 10921

For what its worth, I think we're going to have two quarters of flat to slightly negative rate of growth and the take off in Q2 2001. You may be completely right that the new fabs are being ordered due to the expansion. Still, I'd like to offer alternative reasons. I'll be happy if they are logically knocked down. It is possible that many companies that are investing in 300mm technology are doing is as a prototype of their future fabs, so that they can work out the kinks and be ready for when they really want to order 300mm fabs. It is also possible that the cycle has peaked and the next one will be in full force in about 2 years. Since that is roughly how long it takes for a fab to be built, it is possible that the reason for orders is for the next up cycle rather than the present one. Please don't think that I am bearish (or bullish) on the industry. I am simply bouncing ideas. For the most part, I let the technicals tell me when to buy. ST