Load up on AAPL ????
I actually pretty much agree with this, and considering the huge cash stockpile they are sitting on ($12/share or so), I think buying AAPL around $20 is a worthy investment !!!!!
Message 14592935
Why We Will Benefit From Apple's Financial Troubles
10-16-00
Dave Schultz
The news of a slow down in profits sent AAPl to crater level. The Mac Web was quick
to react. It was swift and brutal. Even I had some thing sto say about it, saying that
I was suffering from "Steve fatigue." But since the news, and after thinking about it
some more, I have come to see that this slow down may in fact be one of the
better things that has happened to Apple recently. And it will benefit us the most.
But first let me gripe. I had an Apple 17 inch Studio Display (CRT) go down on me.
The LCD Studio Display was out and I think it is one of the beautiful pieces of
hardware out there. Besides, I spend about about 8-10 hours on my Mac a day, and
looking at a CRT all day makes my eyes glaze over. I wanted to get an LCD Display.
But you know the problem if you have a pre-Dual Procesor G4. We have a G4/450
"Sawtooth" (AGP). Apple decided that they would change the cables on displays and
came up with the ADC. Guess what - - they won't hook up to my G4! Apple has
come out with an adaptor so that the older monitors can work with the newer
machines. But I was told "we have no plans" to make an adaptor for the converse,
for a new display to connect to an old machine. What is more, all of the old monitors
sold out quickly as their price dropped to $299. I couldn't find one for the life of me.
A lot of older G4 owners saw the light and grabbed them.
So here I was, without a monitor and Apple wasn't helping me. Apple has a history
of radical change which leaves some behind. But with monitors, and with as many
AGP G4's there are out there, Apple left a lot, and I mean a lot, of people out in the
cold. This doesn't help and it makes sense for consumers to look elsewhere.
Glad I got that off my chest.
With that said, though, I think Apple's financial trouble will benefit us. I see it already.
Last week Apple announced rebates on the Cube ($300) and Powerbook ($200).
Rumor specialists always think this is a sign of a new product coming out as Apple
seeks to rid themselves of old lines before a new roll out. I don't know about that.
But the price break is good news, especially for potential Cube buyers. Whether this
was planned before the financial news or not, I think we can say that we are
benefiting.
Moreover, Apple's "eNews" newsletter came from the Apple Store today. The
display connector is available for all those with older LCD displays and newer
machines. This might boost sales. But the point is that Apple, since the bad news,
has been making efforts to sweeten deals and get the word out. The Cube
commercial is showing more, for example. I received a box full of promotional
material from Apple that had spec sheets, "Take Ones" and any information you can
dream of in it. They are reaching out.
These campaigns tell us something important, I believe. Apple has realized that once
it hits saturation with its loyal base it is going to take more than artful products to
get new customers. It is going to take some good old marketing and reaching out to
consumers. (See also my "If good taste was a universal Apple would be number
one; Apple is not number one, therefore . . ." coming out soon.) It is going to take
more than Thinking Different ads. It is going to take K-Mart like Blue Light specials
and flyers in our mailboxes the likes of which we have not seen except or all those
AOL CDs you've thrown away. We will benefit.
But I think the bad news is good news in another way. I think that Apple, which has
taken on Jobs' personality, thrives on conflict. In fact, many creative people do. I
think Jobs does. The more pressure, the more conflict, and even the more disorder
there is, the better he peforms, and the better Apple performs. It was disorder which
brought us the iMac after all.
The realization that consumers want more, which the numbers may be telling us
(though it is across the board, Dell, that company of hill-billies, is down 54% this
year too), could not happen to a better company than Apple. Think about it. Apple
has the best designs out there, both externally and in the guts of its machines and
OS. Its design team fuses "art and technology" as Jobs says. They break any cast
the computer industry sets. They truly innovate like no other company. (Just look at
some of these Dell and Compaq boxes. They are ugly and uninspiring.) The industrial
dsign team at Apple cannot be beat. Period. And if they are put in corner . . . look
out.
Throw down a challenge to that team. Throw down a challenge to Jobs. Tell them
we are not happy, and, look out! If Apple is going to go the extra mile to regain
sales, and with this design team in place and Jobs' intutions at the helm, if I am right
Apple with innovate like it never has before. Did you read that - - "Apple will innovate
like it never has before." That means they could out design themsleves! They could
out-iMac themselves; they could out-iBook themselves; they could out-Cube
themselves. You throw down a challenge to this design, tell them you want more
and better, and we will see products like we have never seen before, just like with
the iMac and Cube. Now if Motorola would just come out with some respectful
speeds on its chips (which they did last week, as Joe Carson predicted right here on
Applelust.com), we'd be in business.
I have said that Apple and Jobs do not give consumers what they want. No. Rather
they give us what we didn't know we wanted. This implies that if Apple starts to
innovate even more to win back loyalists and expand its base, then we might have a
hard time imagining what is in store for us in terms of new and innovotative
products. Athird revolution could be underway right now deep in the labsd of One
Infinite Loop and we don't know it.
So this bad time for Apple may not be so bad after all. We could see some of the
coolest products in years. This design team, and Jobs, need times like this. In fact, it
may be that, unawres, they bring it on themselves like the monitor cable problem
above. Creative masochism? I don't know. It isn't intentional of course (most run of
the mill masochists don't intend to harm themselves). But it could be the case,
knowing they work best under stress. that they place themselves in stressful
situations. I don't know and this is merely psychlogical speculation. But be that as it
may, if a company is going to rebound, if a company is going to be put in a corner
and be forced to fight back, if a company needs to innovate itself out of a dilemma,
then it couldn't happen to a beter company and design team than Apple.
So let us sit and back wait to see what they have in store for us. Oh, and yes, hang
on to that AAPL.
Dave Schultz |
