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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Stichnoth who wrote (33257)	10/16/2000 6:44:58 PM
From: tinkershaw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

A few short Rambus answers: *What's Rambus worth?* According to Dataquest by 2002 the DRAM market will reach $76 billion. 2% of this (and I think 2.5% more likely, but just 2% = $1.52 billion x 65% net = $988 million in profits just on royalties. No doubt DRAM will continue to be cyclical, but it is not just the growth rate of computers. It is the growth rate of computers + the growth in memory in computers + the growth of non-computer devices that require memory, cell phones, Sony Playstations, set-top boxes, plus servers, routers, other data storage devices + RDRAM patents are good for any chip to chip communication, meaning that it isn’t limited to DRAM. It can be utilized in any I/O connection to speed up the transmission. I believe I read (but this is vague memory) of RDRAM being utilized with fiber channel (but vague memory so don’t go to the bank on that one). So the market is plenty large and the profit margins, absolute profit and cash flow is enormous. Were talking what could potentially be by the end of 2002 a company clearing $1 billion in profits. Currently there are 96,600,000 shares outstanding and this is growing at approximately a 3% CAGR (refreshingly slow dilution from a tech company). At the end of 2002, or as soon as earnings caught up with all that DRAM, Rambus would be pulling in $9.64 per share accounting for stock dilution. I don’t expect Rambus to do this well so soon, but on paper it could happen with just a consensus estimate like the one that Dataquest provides, and this calculation includes no other revenues other than royalties from DRAM. Overall sales in the chip market are predicted by Data question to grow 36.9 percent this year to $231.6 billion and another 27.5 percent in 2001. Memory chips should keep pace + or – a bit. *Could you tell us about when the court case is expected to be decided?* Can do Apollo, can do. Well sort of. Can’t tell you when they’ll be decided but can tell you that the first case is scheduled for trial on December 22, 2000 or thereabouts in Germany. This is the case against Infineon. The cases against Micron and Hyundai are also in Germany and scheduled for trial on February 16, 2001. The trials in the U.S. are tentatively scheduled to begin in March or April 2001. Rambus sued these parties in Germany due to the much more rapid pace and limited discovery time allowed by German courts. Such a move evidences confidence but perceptions may vary. As of today Rambus has DRAM royalty agreements in place which cover all forms of mainstream DRAM including SDRAM, RDRAM and DDR with NEC, Toshiba, Hitachi, and Okia. Or about 25% of the DRAM market. Samsung is in negotiations. Since Samsung is RDRAMs largest advocate it is expected that these negotiations will be the friendliest. *Congrats on a "cool post"* Thank you sir, thank you. Too bad it was a negative post and not the crowning of a new Gorilla. But I’ll take them where I can get them.;) *Maybe you should tutor Tekboy in "how to do it"* There are challenging tasks and then there are “insurmountable” tasks I’m afraid this may qualify as the latter. Tekboy, enjoy your style, always keep in mind that the great ones are never appreciated in this lifetime. Tinker