Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (8766)	10/16/2000 8:12:07 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Thanks for the charts. I have a question about them (my apologies if I've asked this before). Are the dates of the BTB data points those of the period they span, or the dates of their release? It seems to me that for investment purposes the release date is the more relevant one. Looking at the charts, it seems that the stock price well anticipates the cumulative backlog. I was tempted to say that the rate of change in BTB (your first chart) may be a leading indicator of the stock price, but 5 years does not contain enough cycles in it to support a conclusion. If you have a more comprehensive spreadsheet for the first chart, I can plot the data accordingly (I am only volunteering to save you some time. You've done a lot!). thanks, ST

To: Gottfried who wrote (8766)	10/16/2000 8:34:37 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Armed with your charts as weapons its possible to made a hundred different scenarios. Your first chart showing the high and low for the month on AMAT looks a lot like bolinger bands. As if the posters on this thread weren't confused enough you had to add more spice to the salsa!!! Good Work... Jerome

To: Gottfried who wrote (8766)	10/16/2000 9:33:13 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 10921

G, Great charts. Thanks for the work. Brian

To: Gottfried who wrote (8766)	10/16/2000 9:44:54 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Yo Gottfried! Looks like there might be correlations between the derivative of BTB (as a weighted trailing average, maybe) with AMAT median price. I'm guessing, as I haven't found the Magic Transform that gives a reasonably large correlation coefficient. Time to pull out the ol' least squares algorithms and have a go at it, I suppose. <typing madly> In any case I think it would be a correlation without direct cause-effect linkage; I'm suspicious that other factors or mediating variables are present. In short, it's a messy math problem, unlike the nice charts you posted. Thanks! Mitch PS If it IS cause-effect linked, does that mean that AMAT price causes the BtB ratio to change? Just wondering.... M