October 16, 2000
Bush seen leading Gore in race
By Donald Lambro
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
George W. Bush is leading Al Gore in the contest for
the Electoral College vote but remains 31 votes short of the 270 needed to win
the presidency, according to a state-by-state projection by The Washington
Times.
Based on the latest independent public
opinion polls, Mr. Bush is running ahead of
Mr. Gore in 26 states that would give him a
total of 239 electoral votes.
Mr. Gore presently leads in 13 states
plus the District of Columbia for a total of
189 electoral votes, or 81 votes short of the
winning number.
There are 11 tossup states, totaling 110
electoral votes, where the two candidates are
either tied or their lead in the polls is inside
or close to the margin of error.
These states are Arkansas, Delaware, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire,
Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
What this means at this point is that Mr. Bush would have to carry just two
or three of these tossup states in order to clinch the election.
For example, it would take victories only in Pennsylvania (23 electoral
votes) and Michigan (18) to put Mr. Bush over the top.
Mr. Bush has pulled even with Mr. Gore in Michigan, closing a gap of as
much as 12 points from a month ago.
Similarly, Missouri, Washington and Wisconsin would give him 33 more
votes, two more than he needs.
The climb for Mr. Gore to reach 270 is much steeper. In order to get the 81
additional electoral votes he needs, he would have to carry at least six of the 11
tossups, including Michigan, Missouri, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Washington
and his home state of Tennessee.
But that is a tall order right now. Recent polls in the Nashville Tennessean
and the Chattanooga Times-Free Press show Mr. Bush — who has made a
number of appearances there — edging past Mr. Gore in his home state.
The picture has begun to look so bleak in Tennessee — once taken for
granted by Mr. Gore — that his campaign has begun spending money there
on television ads.
A month ago, Mr. Gore had lengthened his lead in several of the
battleground states, but since the debates Mr. Bush has bounced back in many
of them and closed the gap.
In Pennsylvania, for example, where Mr. Gore had a double-digit lead last
month, the latest independent polls show Mr. Bush trailing by six points and a
Republican Public Opinion Strategies poll has him leading by two points.
In Florida, where the two rivals have been in a seesaw battle for months, two
polls now show Mr. Bush leading by a small margin. The Torrance Group
polling firm had Mr. Bush ahead by four points, 46 percent to 42 percent,
while the Mason-Dixon poll gave him the edge, 47 percent to 44 percent.
California has been in the Gore column for most of the year, and the latest
Field poll of 1,018 likely voters shows Mr. Gore leading there, 50 percent to
37 percent. But another survey by independent pollster John Zogby showed
Mr. Bush trailing by only six points, with 7 percent undecided.
Mr. Bush now says, "I think we will win California."
But as it stands now, California is leaning to Mr. Gore, as are Illinois, Iowa,
Maine and Minnesota.
As it has since the end of the primary season, the electoral map still shows
Mr. Bush sweeping the western plains and mountain states and most of the
Deep South and the border states.
Florida, where both campaigns are spending heavily on TV ads, is seen
right now as "leaning to Bush." The Gore campaign stopped running ads in
Ohio last week to shift some of its resources to Florida, according to
Democratic campaign advisers.
Mr. Gore has traveled to Florida several times in recent weeks. During one
stop, he reprised the Democrats' 1995 "Mediscare" tactic by declaring Mr.
Bush an enemy of Medicare.
Mr. Gore had hopes of being more competitive in the South, but it is hard
to find a state where he is doing well in the region. His struggle to carry his
own state underscores the troubles he is having elsewhere in the South.
In Louisiana, where Democrats hope that a heavy black turnout will win the
state for Mr. Gore, Mr. Bush is up by six percentage points, according to his
internal polls.
Arkansas remains a tossup, despite recent efforts by President Clinton to
win his home state for Mr. Gore. Mr. Bush has the edge there now.
Mr. Bush is leading in Kentucky, where Republicans have been relentlessly
attacking Mr. Gore as "the enemy of tobacco" and pounding him for "his lack
of credibility." A Bush adviser told The Washington Times that "our polls
show that race is over for Gore."
In Georgia, a state that Republicans have carried in four out of the past five
presidential elections, the latest Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll showed Mr.
Bush leading, 52 percent to 36 percent.
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