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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: techguerrilla who wrote (8289)10/17/2000 2:31:09 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
INTC haircut was for future expectations
not simply from missing earnings by one cent
they must give evidence that their future is much brighter than what is expected at this absurdly bleak point

I think their future is far brighter than silly expectations
the company is surely worth more than current valuation
the PC world is slowing down, not considerably, but steadily

while the tech world offers plenty of hypergrowth opportunities, Intel will probably NOT be the giant it was in the last decade

PC processors, PC motherboards, network interface cards, flash memory, graphics acceleration processors, wireless digital signal processors... these are NOT driving the broadband revolution and communications revolution... these are RIDING such revolutions... well, correction, wireless DSP is driving, but Intel has barely begun operations beyond the promise from last autumn via acquisition

as for the return of the $200 billion, the market doesnt owe anybody shit or shinola... someday that marketcap might be restored... take a look at Dell over the last three years and find how the market restored them... or AOL, or Compaq

be careful about expecting old highs to be quickly challenged... if anything is clear about the last few months, it is...

TECHNOLOGY HAS A NEW GANG OF LEADERS
IF THE OLD LEADERS WANT TO CONTINUE LEADING, THEN THEY MUST SHED THEIR SLOWEST GROWTH OPERATIONS

Corning is the greatest example now... they are focused on fiberoptic supplies, components, and equipment... they shed their kitchen housewares division... Intel might have to shed its PC processor/motherboard operations, or relegate it to a tracking stock

as RRick likes to point out, focus on emerging breakouts of new leaders, not recoveries from broken momentum players... Intel and Microsoft are damaged... Cisco is demoted but still a leader... Oracle is one adaptive winner leader still... that leaves room for 6-8 new tech giants like EMC and SunMicro, and definitely a host of new guys

sincerely, Jim