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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian Oil & Gas Companies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (7707)	10/17/2000 11:31:41 AM
From: SofaSpud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24899

For the life of me I cannot understand why the junior energy market is not soaring with the current prices So, is it "different this time" or are we just getting jerked around on timing? One old hand said to me a while back that the cycle doesn't end until everyone gets on the bandwagon; the implication was that, until then, the $ aren't available to ramp up production enough to finish the cycle. By that reasoning, high prices are here to stay for a while, and stock prices will catch up. Or you could tell a story about how it really is different this time. The WCSB is so thoroughly drilled, they could fling all $35 billion in cash flow at it and not replace reserves; it would be a poor investment. The environment that created Renaissance and CNQ is gone, so there's no point investing in juniors now -- it's just a treadmill, and anyway the big money is now smart, having learned the hard way last time. Part of me is leaning toward the first explanation. There is no way the market is that smart. You tell me how smart it is for a profitable company to lose a third of its value because earnings were short a penny. Nonsense. So they'll troll around for another story, and in six months or 12 months they'll look at CXY sitting on $1.5 bn. of cash flow, or POU with $300 million, or little URC with $30 million, trading under 10x EPS, and pile in. I'd be interested in peoples' perspectives. Lord knows I'm finding it difficult to be patient. I suppose it was too easy to just wait for prices to come off their lows, but this is tough to take.