October 17, 2000
Now Comes the Gore vs. Bush Endgame,
With 13 Toss-Up States Left on the Board
By JEANNE CUMMINGS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
WASHINGTON -- When Al Gore and George W. Bush take the stage
Tuesday night in St. Louis, they will be at the fault line of the presidential
campaign.
Missouri is one of just a handful of states
scattered across the country that are still
considered toss-ups, and these states will likely
determine who becomes the nation's 43rd
president. In addition to three more Midwest states, other contested zones
include two states in the Pacific Northwest, three in the South, a couple in
the West, and one each in New England and the Mid-Atlantic region.
These 13 states, some big and some small, represent the final pieces Mr.
Bush and Mr. Gore have to work with to put together the 270 Electoral
College votes required to win the presidency. If undecided voters in the
swing states split about evenly, it is possible that one of them could win a
razor-thin popular vote but still lose the White House. The reason, says
Princeton University political scientist Larry Bartels, is that Electoral College
votes are allocated on a winner-take-all basis. Thus, Mr. Bush could rack up
huge victory margins in some Southern states, but while that would enhance
his popular-vote margin, it wouldn't change his Electoral College count.
Meanwhile, Mr. Gore could tip the Electoral College to his favor by winning
a couple of battleground states by much smaller margins.
Of course, it is worth noting that it has been 124 years since a president, in
this case Republican Rutherford B. Hayes, lost the popular vote but won the
Electoral College vote. And a close look at the Bush and Gore campaigns'
strategies for the final weeks offers clues about where they see their
advantages.
Each candidate began his calculation with a large bloc of Electoral College
votes in his column. The Republican Party's Southern strength meant that,
with little effort, Mr. Bush could assume from the outset that Alabama,
Virginia, South Carolina and a host of other Dixie states would fall into his
column.
When all those GOP safe states are combined with those leaning or likely to
vote Republican, the Bush campaign starts the race with about 205 Electoral
College votes. In contrast, states that are leaning, likely or most assuredly
going to vote for Mr. Gore -- including New York and California -- provide a
base total of 187 votes for the Democratic nominee.
That becomes the starting mark, and campaign strategy from now on will be
driven by surveys of state voters more than national polls, such as a new
Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey that shows Mr. Bush ahead 48% to
42% among likely voters.
Just last week, for example, the Gore campaign began shifting resources
from Ohio, where Mr. Bush appears to be solidifying a lead, to Michigan,
where polls show a dead heat or a slight advantage to Mr. Gore.
Meanwhile, a rising confidence in the Bush campaign is prompting his
operation to sink more money into the normally Democratic-leaning states of
Wisconsin and Washington.
The campaign themes that each camp wants to employ during the final
weeks are also coming into clearer focus. Mr. Gore will begin playing to
moderate voters by returning to pocketbook issues. Tuesday, he will release
the names of 420 high-tech executives who have endorsed him, and on
Thursday he will make a major economic address in New York. Mr. Bush is
opting for a sharper, more partisan message -- accusing the vice president of
trying to bring back big government-in order to activate his base voters. His
mother, Barbara Bush, will lead a female delegation campaigning for support
from suburban women.
So, as the two candidates fan out across the country after Tuesday night's
final televised debate, this is where things stand in some of the critical swing
states and regions:
The Midwest: Illinois and Ohio are lining up behind Mr. Gore and Mr. Bush,
respectively, but that still leaves enough Electoral College votes to make it
the most important region in the final push. Missouri carries 11 votes, while
Minnesota has 10, but the prize is Michigan with 18.
Mr. Gore is playing hard for the Wolverine State. Since June, his campaign
has spent $5 million on advertising vs. $4 million by Mr. Bush.
With a population of 300,000 Arab Americans, Michigan is one of the few
states where the election could be directly affected by conflict in the Middle
East. The issue could be particularly touchy for the Democratic ticket with
Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman running as the first Jewish
vice-presidential candidate. During a weekend Detroit rally, Mr. Gore was
careful to bemoan the "suffering the families on both sides have felt."
Meanwhile, Mr. Bush picked up the endorsement of the Detroit-based Arab
American PAC.
The Pacific Northwest: Third-party presidential candidates aren't playing
well nationally-except in this pocket where the Green Party's Ralph Nader is
drawing enough support to give Mr. Bush a chance to grab two states that
Mr. Gore was counting on. The states are Washington with 11 electoral
votes and Oregon with seven. Many Republicans believe Oregon may be
Mr. Bush's best shot at stealing a state. An early September poll put the
Oregon race at 42% for Mr. Gore and 41% for Mr. Bush, with Mr. Nader
drawing 8%.
The Nader campaign also could help Mr. Bush in the Midwest state of
Wisconsin, which has 11 electoral votes. From Sept. 25 to Oct. 8, the Bush
campaign stepped up TV ads in Wisconsin, spending $354,212 to Mr. Gore's
$150,775, according to the Brennan Center for Justice.
The South: A weekend rally by Mr. Bush in President Clinton's home state
of Arkansas, which has six electoral votes, wasn't just meant to psyche out
the other side. Mr. Clinton's heir apparent is lagging behind there and could
wind up with an embarrassing loss. Less likely is the GOP's much-touted
possibility in Mr. Gore's home state of Tennessee, with its 11 votes. The
hottest Southern contest, however, is in Florida, where Mr. Bush's brother,
Gov. Jeb Bush, is struggling to deliver the state's vital 25 votes to the family
cause. Without Florida, few GOP analysts see a way for Mr. Bush to
construct the 270 votes he needs to win.
The West: The small states of Nevada, with four electoral votes, and New
Mexico, with five, are taking on oversized roles in the campaign because the
race holds such a small margin of error for either campaign. Both are vital to
Mr. Bush's calculation. But Mr. Gore has managed to make inroads in
Nevada with support from the gaming industry -- upset by GOP antigambling
rhetoric -- and local concerns over the environment and nuclear waste.
New England: New Hampshire is another tiny state that looms large. As
part of his expanded map, Mr. Bush is pushing hard to return the Granite
State's four votes to the GOP family.
This week, he will campaign there with Arizona Sen. John McCain, who
remains popular after scoring an upset victory over Mr. Bush during the
heated GOP primary earlier this year.
Mid-Atlantic: Pennsylvania voters are proving a fickle lot. With its 23
electoral votes, the state was considered early in the campaign to be one of
the most contested.
Then polls showed voters shifting in large numbers to the Gore campaign
following the two parties' conventions. But now the polls have tightened
again.
Plans by the Gore campaign to withdraw resources have been abandoned,
and Mr. Gore is beefing up there.
From Sept. 25 to Oct. 8, Mr. Gore outspent Mr. Bush $1.5 million to $1.3
million in political advertising in the state, but Mr. Bush has campaigned
there every week this month with popular Gov. Tom Ridge at his side.
Write to Jeanne Cummings at jeanne.cummings@wsj.com |
