Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cnyndwllr who wrote (76502)	10/17/2000 12:10:48 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Ed: "Why haven't any of the majors jumped ahead well ahead of the pack on exploration" ? ... well; "ED" perhaps you're not as stupid as you first appear (VBG) ~but, I wouldn't bet on it... Why should the majors ramp exploration ? They're printing money here, maximizing ROI & extending reserve life - XOM in the last qtr made more money than any company in the history of the world - literally. The independants can not grow production to meet demand growth here - so why should/would they step up exploration to meet this demand & shorten the nirvanna cycle ? ... and those meetings between OPEC & the Majors (VBG)? - bingo ! - the "cartel" has a few silent members as well...and quite obviously so ~ Ed glad to see you've finally glammed onto the most simplistic precepts of this cycle after they've been so apparent for so long.... ie: balance sheet repair, mergers depleting the cap ex pool... the "silent members" of OPEC Nice suck up job Ed; - ohhh edward..., ohhh iso... - christ; where's the barf bag.... you're trying much, much to hard to bootlick here Ed - it's not normal, not masculine & you now where that takes us.... Gee;after recognizing those "pearls of wisdown" - I'd be willing to bet that soon, very soon - you're going to catch on that this is actually a "cyclical sector " and that Oilpatch stocks & commodity prices just don't go straight up like those Naz stocks do.... "Ed" ... you've arrived at precisely the right time here; we needed some "food" here...and some entertainment as well; as the NAZ melts down.... Watch that "Trap Door" Ed.... and you know what Ed; review this while you're at it; just for review sake - since "my" Black Friday "call" so distrubed you. RWS's link sounds kind of familar.... but; hey - it's not the message, it's the messenger; right ? ...scope down - DIVE ! DIVE ! DIVE ! ====================================================================== home.att.net - < "The risk/reward ratio was very unfavorable for buying the high-flyer stocks Friday and holding "long" over the weekend. but that didn't stop investors from piling in. When I heard the "hotter than expected" Producer Price Index (PPI) number and the Retail Sales number Friday morning, I thought the markets would be down 1000 points. Asian and European markets were sharply lower. Tensions in the Middle East were still high. One had to assume the PPI indication of inflation coupled with brisk consumer spending would prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates any time soon. The "hard landing" scenario is in play. A rational market should have completed a capitulation low"> ...hmmm; "risk vs. reward" - interesting concept; seems like I've heard that one before... - "hotter than expected PPI & consumer spending"... think we've "been there & discussed that" as well... - "hard" vs. soft landing.... ditto - "a rational market should have completed a capitulation low" .... bingo ! - said exactly that thursday night. << "Today's market action moved dozens of stocks like this away from the edge of danger. That was the planned purpose of today's rally. (I hope no one thought today was a new bull market!) >> ..."that was the planned purpose of today's rally" - exactly; I think I termed it "panic buying" to stop the freefall & outflows. << "By the way, they used your money to jack up the markets today in order to protect their jobs.">> ... they "used your money" - gee; another original concept; ie: using "OPM/your OPM"... << "The PPI graph shows the growth rate of the PPI. To be "not inflationary", the PPI growth rate should be trending lower. Today's data indicated a much higher growth rate than expected, which argues against FOMC interest rate cuts. Furthermore, Retail sales were reported "hotter" than expected. Consumer spending is above levels considered "not inflationary". Alan Greenspan is "toothless" to cut interest rates in this environment to lift the economy. If anything, he may raise interest rates. ">> ...Greenspan's "Fed Trap" - the catch 22/can't win scenario. << "The next two charts are the CRB weekly index and the US Dollar weekly index. Someone is wrong about the economic outlook. The prospects for inflation are demonstrated by the strong trend in the CRB. But, bond rates are tame and the USdollar is strong. To me, this implies a build-up of stress tensions in the markets. I understand the "safe haven" status of the US dollar and US Treasury securities. Seems to me there will soon be repurcussions from the stress tensions being created. The "earthquake" may still hit the equity markets. ">> ...inflation, CRB a key indicator of inflationary reality, "Stress tensions in the markets" & "the earthquake may still hit the equity markets" - hmmm; maybe a Tsunami-Bear ? << "The U.S. dollar surged again today as the explosive events in the Mid East caused a rush to safe havens. This was the most clear evidence that the U.S. stock market rally may not be sustainable. This is a chart of currencies in trouble. The strength in the US Dollar made things worse for all of these currencies. Look at the Phillipine Peso! The Eurodollar was weaker today, breaking under pre-intervention levels. Concerns about multi-national company earnings will be renewed. Repatriation of profits will impair earnings. A stronger dollar makes oil price increases more burdensome for foreign countries, since oil to the world is denominated in dollars. These countries are in economic trouble. We know from past devaluation events that ripple effects reach around the world. International financial arrangements become scrambled when loans get repaid at 50 cents on the dollar.">> ...hmmm; sounds familar yet again; strong dollar being an unsustainable catalyst to "scrambled International financial arrangements"... the only thing he missed is mentioning that the "unscrambling" will surely involve the hyper-irrational LTC-esque leverage via the historic use of derivaties in the "Trillions of dollars" - "T" not "B"... You know dabum; I think you've got a great point; obviously it's the messenger & not the message... Ironically; the personal attacks allways occur when the message has been on the money... and why do they try so hard to spin what the message has been in the past; is it the future they fear ? Ed; Princess Di; keep bringing on all the messenger attacks; the "cash register" is the only judge that unemotionally pays the winners & punishes the losers... the rest is just ankle biting chihuahua "noise". PS Chihuahua's...you can attack the messenger; but here's yet the same message once again; this time by Jeff Applegate of Lehman: thestreet.com <<"The strategist also warned that stocks that held up best during the preceding six weeks -- he cited BEA Systems (BEAS:Nasdaq - news), EMC (EMC:NYSE - news), Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - news) and Network Appliance (NTAP:Nasdaq - news) (all up again on Monday) -- "will be pummeled as the stock market makes its bottom." (Lehman has done underwriting for Network Appliance.) ">> ....hmmm; said the high flyers "will be pummeled" - gee; what another original concept. - yes sirre; Princess Di & Ed; it must be "MY" agenda... <<""The current stock market correction may have more to run," Jeffery Applegate, chief investment strategist at Lehman Brothers wrote in his weekly market commentary, published today. Applegate, whose longstanding bullishness has been reported here repeatedly, also wrote, "We could need to see higher volatility, higher put/call ratios, higher volume and more new lows" before a final bottom is established. :>> ... "more new lows before a final bottom is established" - correctamundo; only that low is going to be one hell of a lot lower than the chihuahua's expect. So; is it really the message, or the messenger ? Ciao~