To: Ian@SI who wrote (25206 ) 10/17/2000 4:03:33 PM From: Zeev Hed Respond to Ian, the climate in February or March, when the question of this thread was a competition of "when" does CYMI reach $100, not whether it does, was, IMHO, a climate of "how much better can it be". When the BTB reached 1.46 or so in April, you knew it could not get much higher. The price of many stocks, however, (like AMAT) was as if the semi equip have a visibility of a $100 Billions in shipments in the next few years. Any small cough in the chip sector itself (like INTC, and earlier LSI) had to translate itself into a pneumonia for the equipment sector, I know, it is "irrational", but, it is what always happen, and we always forget and look at the rosy shipment numbers. Look at the sequence of QOQ (even in NVLS, an excellent company), they are declining. Look at NVLS' DOS up to 90 days, that is a warning signal. Having said all that, I think that NVLS right here at $30 is a steal for the next two maybe three months (I have a target of about $48-$52, and yes, my buy yesterday ay $36 and change is under water). Later, however, I believe we will have to wait for the BTB to actually go under 1.00 (and form a bottom there) before the sector can look at another upcycle. Mind you, we may never get the 1998 distaster in earnings this time (that is why the coming bargains are going to be so humongous), but I count the cycle not on shipments peaks and throughs, I count it on new highs new lows for the stocks. AMAT new high in this cycle was about 4 times the high of the last cycle, a fantastic performance, but it will take sometime before AMAT will have a top line that is four times the top line at the peak of the last cycle.irrevolute.iuma.com
