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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (38406)	10/17/2000 4:40:30 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Thread, 1. I still believe that the basis for investing in semi-equips is believing in and understanding the cycle. 2. We are in a bear market for technology stocks caused by ridiculous valuations placed on them and the realization that there are economic restraints to their rate of growth. The bear will end when all the excess valuation has been wrung out. 3. The semi-equips are a very risky area of investment, today. The easy money has been made. 4. I do not believe that we are seeing the beginning of the end of the semi-equip cycle. I still believe that peak revenues and earnings will occur in 2002. 5. If more time were spent analyzing the cycle, the flattening and now falling results of the back end would not necessarily negatively affect the front end. 6. Front end revenues are lumpier than back end and have much longer lead times. 7. Intermediate term investors may play for another up move sandwiched between the end of the bear and evidence of the end of the cycle. Long term investors will not get the big returns until the next up cycle, but downside risk is decreasing daily. 8. The best scenario is a flattening in orders due to digesting the big run up and shortages in lithography. This could extend the up cycle to 2003. Meanwhile, the analysts, who are primarily interested in volatility and trading volume, continue to call the end of the cycle. When the end doesn't come, they admit their errors and declare that cycles have ended. This gives us a huge rally into 2002 and this time we ALL get out before the real down cycle, even Brian K. Cary