To: RockyBalboa who wrote (6457 ) 10/18/2000 5:30:42 PM From: Sir Auric Goldfinger Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19428 IBM Shares Drop After Sales Fall Short of Street expectations By WILLIAM M. BULKELEY Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL International Business Machines Corp. reported a strong earnings increase that matched expectations in the third quarter, but revenue grew a disappointing 3% as software sales slowed and supply problems fettered production. In afternoon trading Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange, shares of IBM were down $17.88 to $95.13, a decline of 16% from Tuesday's 4 p.m. close. IBM is also one of the 30 components in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which within 20 minutes of the opening bell Wednesday had plummeted 400 points. Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown and Prudential Securities lowered their investment ratings on the stock, while Merrill Lynch cut its fourth-quarter IBM earnings projection by four cents a share to $1.46. Cost Controls The largest computer maker manifested its ability -- repeated often under the reign of Chairman and Chief Executive Louis V. Gerstner Jr. -- to use tight cost control and aggressive share repurchases to wring strong per-share earnings gains out of tepid top-line advances. IBM also said fourth-quarter earnings will match analysts' expectations. Third-quarter net rose 11% to $1.96 billion, or $1.08 a diluted share, from $1.76 billion, or 93 cents a share, a year earlier. In the year-earlier quarter, Big Blue's earnings excluding special items were $1.69 billion, or 90 cents a diluted share. Per-share earnings excluding items were up 20% from the year-earlier level, in line with most analyst predictions. Revenue rose to $21.78 billion from $21.14 billion. It was the first revenue upturn after three quarters of year-to-year declines. But in a subdued conference call with analysts, Chief Financial Officer John Joyce said the gain was "not at the rate we wanted." Prognosticators had been looking for a revenue gain of as much as 7%. IBM shares, which rose $1.88 to $113 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading, fell sharply to $100 in after-hours trading following the results. Trying to Meet Estimates Looking ahead, Mr. Joyce said, "We are driving to achieve consensus" earnings estimates in the fourth quarter, "just as we did in the third." Analysts expect a 30% advance in earnings per share, according to the First Call/Thomson Financial survey. Mr. Joyce said that revenue growth should continue but said, "I don't want to get specific," in part because "we will still be struggling with supply issues and won't be able to fulfill demand." If IBM makes the consensus fourth-quarter forecast, earnings per share for the year will reach $4.45, up from $3.72 a share last year. IBM said revenue would have grown 6% if it weren't for the sharp decline in the euro. Sales in IBM's Europe, Africa, and Middle East segment were down 3% to $5.6 billion, but would have risen 8% in constant currency. IBM said it was also hurt by the unexpected software slowdown; an inability to build or buy enough microelectronic products to meet demand, which hurt sales to its customers and held down production of its own computers; and customer hesitation about buying big computers while waiting for a new generation of IBM mainframes. The year-earlier quarter had marked the beginning of a business slowdown for IBM caused by worries about the impact of the year-2000 computer bug on old software that hadn't been adjusted to accept four-digit dates. Many companies spent years getting ready for the turn of the millennium and then held down new computer projects to be sure they wouldn't trigger snafus. The worries hammered revenue for IBM and several other companies that specialize in hardware, software and services for the Fortune 500 computer rooms. Even after the turn of the year many companies took months to start up new projects. Analysts said they were relieved that IBM continued to meet earnings forecasts, but were frustrated by the slow revenue growth. Don Young, an analyst with PaineWebber said, "I don't understand how they got into the position of allocating so much of their supply" of microelectronics to customers. IBM said that it wasn't able to build as many Unix servers as its customers wanted because it didn't have enough chips for its own needs. Key Indicators 3Q 2000 3Q 1999 Revenue $21.8 billion $21.1 billion Net Income $2.0 billion $1.8 billion Software revenue $2.9 billion $3.0 billion New svcs. contracts $13.3 billion $9.2 billion Total expenses $5.0 billion $4.9 billion Total Debt $29.4 billion $27.9 billion Shares outstanding 1.8 billion 1.8 billion Gross profit margin 35.8% 35.8% Tax rate 30.0% 33.0% IBM has been building a technology business that sells parts to other companies, and when shortages hit it has to fulfill its commitments to those customers. Jay P. Stevens of Buckingham Research, who had expected 6.5% revenue growth despite the currency problems, said, "They didn't come through on the top line." He said he will probably cut his estimate of fourth-quarter growth to 10% from the depressed year-earlier level. He had been forecasting 11.5% growth.