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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (14747)	10/17/2000 9:12:27 PM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 275872

<On P4, it could be problematic for AMD. > Ultimately, true. But unlikely until H2 2001

To: Joe NYC who wrote (14747)	10/17/2000 11:09:02 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

On P4 ramp. Don't you think the recent delay in the P4 intro until the end of November means that Intel is not likely to start their Q1 ramp until then? That would mean the higher production rate won't show up until late February. It would be very risky to ramp up production to 5000 WPW (probably too high) if your 700 WPW production lot hasn't even completed yet. BTW, the Israeli fab should be able to make about 400K P4's per week if it ramps to the max, so Intel may be able to make 5M P4's in Q2. I'd expect about 1.5M P4's in Q1, very much back-ended, which probably matches the quantity of AMD's 1.5GHz+ CPU's. AMD will have the advantage of much cheaper infrstructure. Intel will have the advantage of people wanting the latest thing, an entrenched business market, and maybe a continueous 100 MHz (although lower performance rating) advantage in max speed. Petz