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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (60800)	10/17/2000 10:48:31 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

EXTR In my opinion, EXTR broke out of a sound base dating back to april 1999. The breakout occurred on 7/10/00. The pivot is $53 1/4. The handle occurred 7/7, 7/10, and 7/11. The breakout fell back into the base on 8/3 to a low of $58.875. Using the 8% stop loss rule (loss limit reached at $49), if one had purchased this stock just as it exited through the pivot point, one would have been able to hold the stock through the decline. Since the pivot on 7/10 the stock is up 122%. I currently have the bullish support line around $88. The stock tagged the upper bollinger band at $128 with a lower RSI than the last trip to $128 indicating negative divergance. The implication is short term weakness (with the slow stochastic approaching the overbought level). My guess would be a stall with a trip back to bullish support. Once near the bullish support line, look for bottom volume confirmation. Exit if support doesn't hold. Good Luck! Edit: O'Niel makes the point that all bullish patterns, including the cup and handle, are failure prone during bear markets.

To: minorejoy2000 who wrote (60800)	10/18/2000 12:14:50 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Respond to of 99985

OT I think... I enjoyed reading Causabon's reply to your query. Here's a slightly different take, not saying either one is right or wrong, this is just the way I trade and measure - whether its a stock, index, or future... EXTR is currently in a test of top situation, after having made a marginal new high today, has closed back into the range defined by the high of Sept 30 - 128 1/4. Tuesday's candle is an imperfect dark cloud cover as well, but this not germain to the analysis at any rate. If I were trading this long on a position trade, I'd be exiting on the low of Tuesday's bar less 1/2. If price moves there, it confirms a "2B" top. Must more likely however, I'd not not have been long here in the first place and would be looking to establish a short at that same level, with a first target of around 106 and a second target of 92ish. Folks not used to going short might want to sit though being in the consolidation zone, and in a bull market often that strategy would pay off, but this isn't the same market it once was. In my case, I never sit in a stock on a failed test of top, I'm content to miss out any sudden reversals up as there's always another stock or another time to enter. My feeling is if the prior swing low at 92ish is taken out, then it will be time to find a rally to sell. disclaimer, I'm not trading or investing in EXTR at this time!