Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (9)	10/18/2000 1:41:06 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

Gottfried, Thanks for posting the data in graphic form. For others who read this post, I sent my monthly data on the 33 stock index that I have been maintaining, since June of 1997, to Gottfried so he could combine it with the data he has been keeping on semi shipments and bookings(which produces the BtB ratio), and presenting the data on a single chart. Gottfried's chart can be accessed from post #9. Message 14603268 I urge everyone to spend some time studying this chart because a lot of information is contained therein. I will enumerate a few of the points, but many other points can also be made. I like to look at this chart as a reference chart for all readers to use. Gottfried and I are anxiously awaiting the September data from Semi which should be posted in the next few days. As soon as it is available, Gottfried can update and post the chart. Now for the observations. 1. In October of 1997, the bookings (and shipments)peaked - the "Asian crisis" was beginning to appear. The 33 stock "index" started downward at the same month. 2. This downward trend continued until October 1998. At that time, the bookings began to increase (shipments about flat) and the 33 stock index started upward immediately. 3. The upward trend on bookings, shipments and the 33 stock index continued upward until March/April of this year. A "funny" thing happened at that time. Bookings and shipments continued upward at a very nice pace, but the 33 stock index started downward. As fast as the bookings and shipments have continued upward, the 33 stock index has been going downward. What is going on here??? Anybody know - all ideas are welcome. Note again, that from June of 1997 to March/April of this year, all three entities have been trending pretty much together. 4. The SI threads are full of discussion of BtB. It is "loosely" connected to shipments and bookings, but can easily move opposite to bookings and shipments. To prove that, all one has to do is look at the last five months, April through August on the chart. Shipments and bookings are going up at a steep rate every month and BtB is going down. 5. If there is anything BtB might be useful for, it would be to compare the magnitude in different time periods. For instance, the "average" BtB THIS year is HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR. That implies the GROWTH RATE of the semi business is GREATER this year than it was last year, which incidentally can be easily seen by "eyeballing" the bookings and shipments curves in the 2 areas. 6. During the last 5 months, many analysts have been talking the semi market(as well as the NASDAQ, obviously) down. Once they made their commitment to predict a "falloff in demand and the end of the cycle", it is hard for them to back down. They just keep trying to justify their position. We have a divergent situation at this point. Bookings and shipments have been going up for the past five months while the 33 stock index is going down. How are they going to get back in sync again?? The next big event is the release of the SEMI bookings and shipment data for September. Gottfried is waiting!!<gg> Don W.

To: Gottfried who wrote (9)	10/18/2000 10:40:39 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

G, Do we have data to make a chart going farther back in time than June 97? Your graph beautifully illustrates the pain and frustration many of us have been living in '00. This divergence is maddening, and I would like to see if there has ever been such a wide divide between orders and shipments, and SCE share prices. The correlation going back to '97 is very strong, and I for one would be surprised to see another example such as we are now witnessing. Let me know if you need any help in obtaining the data G. Regards, Brian