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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (48922)	10/17/2000 10:52:09 PM
From: Mark Adams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

My gut instinct says we break four digits on the DJI tomorrow, but the impact is more muted on the broader market. Nasdeq is a wild card- damage there has been a bit rougher than I expected. The market seems to be looking for bad news in every nook and cranny, as opposed to days gone by where the silver lining was the focus. So I think things get worse before they get better, but for people looking to deploy cash, more bargains are showing up. My Yahoo portfolio for this month broke to red today. Ahh well, tomorrow brings another batch of earnings to digest. BTW- that list of indexes was meant to be a complete list, not those currently of my primary interest. I felt if I excluded an index, that I might overlook a future opportunity. As I finished the list, I was less than satisfied- as major portions of the market don't appear to be represented. What I usually do is form a basket of stocks representing my view of a 'sector'. I then follow that basket as I learn about the companies and their trading characteristics. This is slow in that it's limited to my learning ability, and I may be focusing on the wrong sector. So what I need to do is get a more automated scan, like what Haim is trying to do on RSI, but against a set of stock baskets representing various sectors as I define them. Then the computer can tell me which sector to focus on for company selection and analysis. This worked much better a year or two ago, when cycles were measured in days and not hours. Thanks for your efforts, but don't get carried away.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (48922)	10/18/2000 12:14:28 AM
From: Skeet Shipman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill, It has been a long time. Some trends I watch, such as lumber and the eurodollar, have been trending steadily since May. I see no change in direction in sight. More of the same bear biased market... "disappointing third quarter sales, and scaling back outlook". Skeet

To: William H Huebl who wrote (48922)	10/18/2000 6:13:54 AM
From: Gary105	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Synthesizing technicals and fundamentals, the slide may take us back to the 1000 range in S&P which would be a P/E of 17 -18, within the traditional range but still on the high end of the range. The fundamental flaw with many analysts valuations of the market is that they expect earnings to increase 13%/yr over the next 5 years despite the fact that earnings have increased 9%/yr over the last 5 yrs (using yahoo research as source) and despite the fact that the economy is slowing. Whether the slide comes today, Monday ('87 crash occured after options expiry), or is drawn out over time remains to be seen - sooner or later technicals and fundamentals converge. All imo.