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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (8421)	10/17/2000 10:23:23 PM
From: jmac	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

setting up big end of year? It will have to be pretty late in the year. Companis aren't going to issue public "warning" stamements in November that they were too conserevative with their estimates. So, if this is what we have to look forward to, it looks pretty bleak for most of the rest of this year.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (8421)	10/17/2000 10:27:17 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 65232

several criteria have been satisfied for bottom (by Bloch) Ralph Bloch of RayJames on the market (ok, forget he is a bear) - HIGH HEAVY VOLUME: last Thurs/Friday saw 1.4 billion shares in NYSE, and I think over 2 billion for Naz each day... that is heavy timber - EXTREME VOLATILITY: yes we got it with plus 200, minus 300, aint seen that in years - STRONG STOCKS CRACK: yes, INTC broke down, EMC broke some, ORCL was shaken & stirred, SEBL lost its high, JDSU fell below 90, many others - BEAR SENTIMENT PREVAILS: yes in spades, cries of recession, talk of bear market, buyer strikes abound --- Put/Call ratio peaks over 2:1 --- VIX option put S&P premium surpasses May levels yes, we have seen the bottom but the bull gets its arse scraped along that bottom some more we need catalysts to rise it doesnt just happen because the worst is over we bang around for a while next we re-evaluate some lofty valuations we re-evaluate some pathetically low valuations extremes in both directions must be rendered more equitable time for Breyers ice cream this market sucks need to rest my weary back / Jim