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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (76599)	10/18/2000 9:15:23 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

We WILL see a historic global crisis event of historic proportion within the next 3-12 mos imho. Will it be: - a meltdown of the US Equity Markets & a mass Exodus from the US Dollar ? ....yes it will imho. - a foreign currency crisis ? ... could be; remember the Asian crisis started with the Thai Baht, look at the Euro currencies against the US Dollar here; let alone the lessor & more suspect currencies.It's not like we haven't had to put lots of fingers to work in the global currency dike before - Russia, Brazil, Mexico etc... - Finanical/Credit crisis ...Junk Bonds, Derivatives, Bad Loans & a general US Banking Crisis ? - all of these are internally hemmoraging presently. From the "war of the worlds" link: << IMBALANCES IN DOMESTIC CREDIT MARKETS You know that this information has been there all along. We report it to you each and every quarter as we review the Fed Flow of Funds data. Swap spread data and spreads between Treasuries "and everything else fixed income" have been highlighted time and again as growing symptoms of financial and credit related strain over the past year or so. Specific company credit mea culpa's such as Wachovia and Union BankCal were early warning shots that were dismissed as company specific. Recently the Fed, FDIC and OCC released their annual (joint) report called the Shared National Credit Exam. The envelope please: Problem loans at approximately $100 billion. (up 45% from 1999) Loans classified as uncollectible at $4.7 billion. (up 300% from 1999) These facts are set against a backdrop of industry wide loan loss reserves at 13 year lows (relative to loans outstanding). Levels even lower than the credit crunch period of the early 1990's>> jim p - I think we may have 9-15 mos before anything other than purely defensive investments have any merit. I honestly thing we are in only the beginning stages of a historic Bear Market. We just had a historic global liquidity infusion and a near mad manipulation/stabilization of the markets - what must and what will be sucked out of the US Equity markets is nearly unfathomable. The only way we'll know we've hit bottom is literally; when no one any longer cares.... CNBC won't be our daily "Survivor" & no one will either want "stocks" , or even care about the markets.... we quite obviously went to a new extreme here of late. We far surpassed the "Shoe Shine Boy" talking stocks of the 1929 crash - we've made "playing the Nasdq" the 24 x 7 American Bingo Party ! ... to bottom; it as must overswing to the other extreme... when no one is talking about the market, let alone cares - then & only then - we'll be bottomed. Hell, we're in the midst of an Oil Shock - whose bleed thru effect won't even be felt for months, we're in a credit crisis, a debt crisis, an account deficit crisis, a junk bond crisis, a derivative crisis, a global currency crisis, a Mid East political crisis and we're in denial of inflation, of valuations, of all the early warning signs...this sets up all the necessary parameters for History teaching the market another 20 year lesson. It's really this simple; 1- play the last remaining break out to Oil 2- continually rotate those Oil profits on strength to Golds 3 - stay short the Bubble.... index puts, or short individual high flyers if so inclined 4- Cash is King ... be safe out there; I added a few shorts yesterday - didn't get lucky by hitting on CMTN, or RFMD but; there's some 6" jackpot putts littering the landscape here for big money... one concept is the negative "sympathy" plays - CMTN gets killed & DSL play COVD gets completely taken out as well... the entire telcom sectors bonds are in meltdown - the easy shorts here are found by shopping the bond lists... and finding those "dead men walking" where these fund mgrs thought they ALL could hide - and that they "ALL" hid there is what makes it shooting ducks in a barrel here on the short side. - one caveat; not a time, or place to "learn" shorting; I am NOT promoting that; but for those who play the darkside.... it don't get no mo better than this ~