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To: Uncle Frank who wrote (41023)	10/17/2000 11:58:31 PM
From: Eric	Respond to of 77398

uf That's ok. I'm actually in your ballpark. I have traded in the past but my biggest gainers by far have been my long term holds. Gotta stay with those Gorillas! Eric

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (41023)	10/18/2000 12:20:18 AM
From: RetiredNow	Respond to of 77398

Hey Uncle, long time no see. I agree with you whole heartedly. LTBH is the way to gain wealth and keep it. Statistically speaking, it is almost impossible to beat the odds of daytrading over the long term. When I was in college eons ago, I participated in a long term study performed by a professor who was an economist/statistician. He compared the two methods of investing via a computer based study, which consisted of a multitude of controlled and chaotic investor behavior scenarios. The crux of his findings was that something like 95% of all people have risk averse tendencies. That translates into being conservative on the upside, meaning taking chips off the table too soon as a stock is going up, and taking too large of risks on the downside, meaning being unwilling to take the loss, because we feel that if we just hold on it will come back up. So what this means in statistical terms is that even if you happen to pick a bundle of stocks whose betas and potential upside and downside returns can be tallied up to give you a positive expected value, that same bundle of stocks can give you a negative expected utility, after you factor in people's risk aversity,. That's kind of why expected utility was created vs just calculating expected values. Unfortunately, that means only the lucky few 5% can play the odds successfully. In a related article on market tendancies, the professor stated that the market's tendency is upwards, so the long term odds are stacked in favor of the long term buy and holder, as long as you diversify. However, if you daytrade, you eliminate the odds that are in your favor. The professor had published his article with a lot of statistics related to all this stuff and it hit me pretty hard because I was daytrading quite a bit at the time. I was making good returns, but wow was it a roller coaster. Then after one particular bad loss that wiped out half a year's gains, I tried the ltbh thing and found that not only did I sleep easier, but I have actually increased my returns dramaticly. Anyway, I'm sure to get spammed for this note, so I'll let you daytraders in on this little secret. I know you won't believe a word I just said, so save your response. Just think about it a little and if you don't like it, ignore it. But promise yourself, you'll think about it again the very next time you lose a bundle of money.