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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porn_start878 who wrote (14762)	10/18/2000 12:26:29 AM
From: Andrew Shih	Respond to of 275872

All, We must not try to think of Intel as the enemy :). This is a Duopoly, and each must make it's $$$. Intel knows that the P3 can't match the Athlon. If they keep producing P3's, there is going to be oversupply and inventory buildup. If you look at this Qs results, it looks like they shifted a substantial amount of capacity towards chipsets. Next quarter they're going to shift a lot of capacity towards P4. It doesn't matter if the P4 is "faster" than an Athlon. If AMD can keep it's bread and butter to 200 Mhz over Intel, it'll do fine. Right now it's probably around 800 or 866 for Intel and 1 Ghz for AMD. As long as Intel doesn't do something stupid with their capacity, AMD can keep trending marketshare up 1 or 2 % each quarter and have very solid growth. I'm not looking for insane revenue next year. A 25% gain over this year for revenue and a 15-20% gain in profit would suit me just fine. Heck, 2.50 * 1.2 = $3. If they provide AMD with a fair multiple (20x or 25x), that means a stock price of $60-$75. As the stock keeps falling, that possible return is getting bigger and bigger. -Andrew

To: porn_start878 who wrote (14762)	10/18/2000 12:35:17 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

RE:"They will ramp P4 more aggressively than we first though." After seeing Mustang, they have no choice... Jim

To: porn_start878 who wrote (14762)	10/18/2000 12:56:07 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: The Apocalyptic I think you're forgetting that in the time frame that P4 is a volume product it will be competing against Clawhammer. Either chip will be more than adequate for almost any purpose, but Clawhammer will be a 64 bit chip - and P4 will be a relic from the 32 bit past. At these levels it's perception and marketing - and a 64 bit chip will have a huge advantage. Dan PS - If P4 IPC really is as poor as early benchmarks have indicated, then Intel up the proverbial creek, with no paddle in sight. I think everyone has just assumed that the final numbers will be much better. If they aren't, Intel won't be competitive for years.