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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (126379)	10/18/2000 1:47:12 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1580476

Ted, AMD will make most of it's microprocessor revenue from 3 to 3.5 million Athlons, mostly made in Drested. Since most of them are faster than the fastest Intel processor, Intel can't really undercut AMD nuch. I think AMD's ASP of the Athlon was between $185 and $190. Suppose the ASP drops slightly to $180. The revenue from just Athlon will be $540 to $630M, meaning just the Athlon segment itself can generate revenue to almost equal of entire CPU division in Q3. All of the revenue from K6 and Duron would be additional. So the optimistic scenario in benign pricing environment with somewhat conservative unit shipment of 8.7M CPUs and 6.9M K7, the CPG revenue would go from $625M to $888M (gain of 42%) with AMD gaining market shate, increasing ASP. The absolutely worst case scenario, with only 3M Athlon at $150, 3M Durons at $60 and 1.5M K6 at $30 would mean revenue of $675M (up 8%), ASP of $90 (down slightly), 7.5 million units (about unchanged market share) So the bottom line, price war or no price war, AMD will do well. All the pricewar can do is to deny AMD a blowout quarter. All of the above is based on the fact that I buy Peck's premise, which I don't. I think the price reductions mentioned by Otellini are just Intel's way of keeping the low end business (sup 1 GHz) from going to AMD and Duron in a big way. Further screw ups buy Via and Sis may spare Intel this scenario. Joe PS: Sorry about the Mariners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . NOT