To: russwinter who wrote (1514 ) 10/18/2000 11:34:55 AM From: ahhaha Respond to sounds like the new economy argument that is now gradually (or quickly judging from today's market action) being debunked. The reality is that the "building blocks" (commodities)of the so called "old economy" are becoming more scarce, Have you looked at the CRB since the beginning of this year (182 to 224, up 23%). Oil and natural gas have skyrocketed, PGM's have skyrocketed, basic metals like copper are lifting. I think the lack of demand for commodities from new era types, is more a product of your imaginations, then hard reality. And it is going to get worse (or better if you are a commodity based investor) because capital has been so badly misallocated out of resources in recent years. There is a three or four year lead time to bring projects on stream, and few are being started. And new exploration? Hardly happening. Where are you going to get this material, out of stockpiles? I don't think so. Finally, today's PM prices have little to do with the traditional "supply and demand" equation you seem to accept. Those particular metals are being used in perverse finance schemes, and as a credit creation tool by dealers and certain misguided producers and central banks. When the credit ratings and "anti-hard money" strategies of these entities (have you seen some of their stock prices lately) start to unwind and a few (or more) of them fail, the lid on PM prices will lift in a heartbeat.
