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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: isopatch who wrote (76657)10/18/2000 11:42:23 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
>> Final phase in downlegs = "no place to hide", but cash or shorts. <<

I don't think the bears have enough weapons short term to make this the final downlegs phase. We'll see. Most of the factors out there will take time to sink in.

high oil prices, bad corporate debt, bad financial debt, slowing economy, falling stock prices, high margin debt

People are aware of all these items, but the individuals by and large are still in denial. Many think the Semi cycle is only 1/2 done. If so many semi's are pretty cheap.

Now I'm not saying we can't see capitulation from these already low levels (not talking valuation), but I don't see it as very likely near term. I think we need a bounce (even a small one). It needs to fail and then the panic will set in.

The talking heads will defend the 3000 level. If it breaks then I'll probably sell everything and wait for the dust to settle.

Of course I'm over 50%+ cash and I have very tight stops in my remaining oil stocks. To say that I'm uneasy would be a huge understatement.



To: isopatch who wrote (76657)10/18/2000 11:47:06 AM
From: Winkman777  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Iso there are a few exceptions, e.g. WCOM now at 24.625. As per post yesterday, I made it my 2nd largest holding (av cost = 21.2). I've just sold all of it, except some that I sold OCT 22.5 calls on. Too much of a pop in one day. With economic fundamentals trending downward, I'll take the bird in hand.

OT: Gore did better last night. As a previous poster noted, Bush looked a little dopey. Maybe he fell off the wagon.

McCain (my choice) would have beaten Gore easily. But he was too honest and outspoken for the well funded Republican leadership.

Good luck all. Keep some dry powder. Winkman